Mercury vs. Lynx Prediction: Game 1 WNBA Semifinals Preview

The Minnesota Lynx and Phoenix Mercury will start their semifinals matchup with Game 1 at 4 p.m. ET on Sunday at the Target Center on ESPN.

The Lynx, who remain the WNBA championship odds favorites, were the only team to record a sweep in Round 1. They defeated the Golden State Valkyries in two games and haven’t played since Wednesday.

Phoenix, meanwhile, finished off its Round 1 series with a 79-73 win over the New York Liberty on Friday. The Mercury will have one day off before facing the best team in the league on the road.

Here’s a look at the latest WNBA odds and my favorite Mercury vs. Lynx prediction:

Mercury vs. Lynx Odds for Game 1: Spread, Total, Moneyline

• Mercury spread: +6.5
• Lynx spread: -6.5
• Total: 158.5

Mercury vs. Lynx Prediction: Game 1 on Sept. 21

Based on the initial WNBA betting lines, I don’t have a favorite Mercury vs. Lynx prediction for Sunday’s Game 1. I lean toward laying the points with Minnesota, but would prefer to wait for better value in the first-half market.

This is too quick a turnaround for the Mercury, who needed to win the final two games of their Round 1 series after dropping an overtime thriller in Game 1. The Lynx will have a considerable rest advantage.

Minnesota had seven games this season when it got three or more days of rest, posting a 6-1 record. The Mercury were 15-10 with one day of rest this year, but with a +1.4 point differential.

I prefer to wait for the first-half lines because the Lynx were dominant in that spot all year. They led the league with a +17.6 net rating in the first half of home games, which includes a defensive rating of 90.9.

The Mercury, meanwhile, had a net rating of -4 in the first half of road games during the 2025 season.

I expect a strong start for the Lynx in a game that could ultimately get away from the Mercury.

Prediction: Lean Lynx’s full-game spread, but wait for first-half lines