- Get WNBA expert picks and analysis for Mercury vs. Aces.
- Las Vegas is a 3.5-point favorite for Game 1.
- The Aces are -130 to win the WNBA Finals.
The stage has been set for the 2025 WNBA Finals.
The Las Vegas Aces will face the Phoenix Mercury in a best-of-seven series, starting with Game 1 at 8 p.m. ET on Friday at Michelob ULTRA Arena on ESPN. It marks the first time in league history that the finals will feature a seven-game series following last year’s five-game thriller between the Minnesota Lynx and New York Liberty.
Las Vegas, which is seeking its third title in four years, enters as the slight favorite to defeat Phoenix. The Mercury are aiming for their first championship since 2014.
Here’s a look at the latest WNBA odds and my favorite Mercury vs. Aces prediction for Game 1:
Mercury vs. Aces Odds for Game 1: Spread, Total, Moneyline
- Mercury spread: +3.5
- Aces spread: -3.5
- Total: 160.5
Mercury vs. Aces Prediction: Game 1 on Oct. 3
Based on the initial WNBA betting lines, I like taking the points with Phoenix for my favorite Mercury vs. Aces prediction ahead of Friday’s Game 1. I’m also tempted to take a plus-money price on Mercury’s moneyline, as they could win outright in the opener.
While Las Vegas might have the advantage of playing at home, Phoenix enters this matchup with more rest. The Mercury haven’t played since Sunday, giving them five days of rest before Game 1 after their 3-1 victory over the Minnesota Lynx in the semifinals.
The Aces, meanwhile, needed five games (and overtime in Tuesday’s Game 5) to defeat a shorthanded Indiana Fever squad in the semifinals.
Phoenix’s players had multiple instances this season in which they complained about unfavorable scheduling. But they delivered when they got some rest, going 8-3 and averaging 88 points per game with three or more days off this year.
Las Vegas won three of the four head-to-head meetings with Phoenix, but only one victory came by more than three points.
Friday’s Game 1 will be a battle of strength vs. strength, as the Aces lead all playoff teams with an offensive rating of 108.9 while the Mercury pace the field with a defensive rating of 92.2. For comparison, Las Vegas’ previous two opponents ranked sixth and seventh in defensive rating this postseason.
The Mercury should provide a different challenge to the Aces, which is why I like taking the points in Game 1. I also lean toward the under for the game’s total.
Prediction: Mercury +3.5 (-115)
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