- Get WNBA expert picks and analysis for Lynx vs. Mercury.
- Minnesota is a 4.5-point favorite for Game 3.
- The Lynx are -350 to win the series.
With the series tied 1-1, the Phoenix Mercury will host the Minnesota Lynx in Game 3 at 9:30 p.m. ET on Friday at the PHX Arena on ESPN2.
The Mercury enter this pivotal matchup of a five-game series with plenty of momentum, having completed a 20-point comeback (tied for third in WNBA history) to win Tuesday’s Game 2. They are 4.5-point underdogs with the series now at their place.
Minnesota remains the betting favorite to win the WNBA championship, but a loss on Friday could shake things up in a big way.
Here’s a look at the latest WNBA odds and my favorite Lynx vs. Mercury prediction for Game 3:
Lynx vs. Mercury Odds for Game 3: Spread, Total, Moneyline
- Lynx spread: -4.5
- Mercury spread: +4.5
- Total: 158.5
Lynx vs. Mercury Prediction: Game 3 on Sept. 26
Based on the initial WNBA betting lines, I’m choosing to lay the points with Minnesota for my Lynx vs. Mercury prediction ahead of Friday’s Game 3.
This is a difficult one to trust after losing the same wager in Game 2, but that was an epic collapse by the Lynx. They led by as many as 20 at the 5:45 mark in the third quarter, with ESPN Analytics giving them a 98.9% win probability at that time.
Minnesota scored 24 points the rest of the way in an 89-83 loss, which included four points in overtime.
The Lynx haven’t been as dominant through two games of this semifinal matchup, but I think that’s more their doing than anything else. Minnesota wasn’t sharp in the first half of Game 1 before flipping a switch after the break in its 82-69 victory.
If the Lynx look like the regular-season version of themselves for four quarters, I expect them to cover this spread.
During the regular season, Minnesota finished four games better than any other team in the league. The Lynx posted a +12.1 net rating, which was nine points higher than the Mercury’s regular-season mark of +3.2.
From a betting perspective, the market couldn’t quite catch up to Minnesota’s dominance. The Lynx went 26-19-1 against the spread, marking the second-best ATS record in the league behind the Atlanta Dream.
The basketball world is due for a dominant showing from the championship favorites at some point. I believe that happens on Friday.
Prediction: Lynx -4.5
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