- Get expert betting predictions and analysis for Mercury vs. Liberty.
- New York is a 2.5-point favorite in Wednesday's Game 2.
- The Liberty are -350 favorites to win Round 1.
Coming off an overtime win in Game 1, the New York Liberty can clinch a series victory at home when they host the Phoenix Mercury at 8 p.m. ET on Wednesday in Barclays Center on ESPN.
The Liberty earned a 76-69 overtime victory over the Mercury on the road in the most thrilling matchup of Sunday’s Round 1 slate. However, Breanna Stewart suffered an injury in OT, and her status is uncertain for Game 2.
Here’s a look at the latest WNBA odds and my favorite Mercury vs. Liberty prediction:
Mercury vs. Liberty Odds: Game 2
- Mercury spread: +2.5
- Liberty spread: -2.5
- Total: 159.5
Mercury vs. Liberty Round 1 Odds
- Mercury moneyline: +280 (+165 before Game 1)
- Liberty moneyline: -350 (-200 before Game 1)
Mercury vs. Liberty Prediction: Game 2 on Sept. 17
My Mercury vs. Liberty prediction suggests backing the road team, based on the latest WNBA betting lines.
When at full strength, the Liberty might have the most talented roster in the league. They started the season 9-0 before an injury to Jonquel Jones. They weren’t whole again until the final week after extended absences without Stewart and Sabrina Ionescu.
Stewart was sidelined for nearly a month after suffering an injury on July 26. The Liberty went 5-8 in the 13 games without Stewart. They ranked 10th in net rating (-3.1), ninth in offensive rating (103), and eighth in defensive rating (106.1) during that stretch without Stewart.
According to the WNBA’s on-off splits, no New York player has a bigger difference in net rating than Stewart this season. The Liberty are +10.4 with her on the court and -1.1 without her, for a difference of 11.5 points.
Simply put, the defending champs are more vulnerable without their best player.
I don’t know if the Mercury can win two games to clinch the series, but I like getting a plus-money price on them to win Game 2. There is a solid chance that this line will move if Stewart isn’t able to play.
Mercury vs. Liberty Prediction: Mercury ML (+120) – Pick made Monday
Mercury vs. Liberty Round 1 Schedule
| Day | Time (ET) | Location | TV |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wednesday | 8 p.m. | Barclays Center | ESPN |
| Friday | TBD | PHX Arena | TBD |
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