- Get expert WNBA picks and analysis for Liberty vs. Mercury.
- Phoenix is a 2.5-point favorite in tonight's Game 3.
The final Game 3 of Round 1 will be a showdown between the New York Liberty and Phoenix Mercury at 9 p.m. ET on Friday at PHX Arena on ESPN2.
The road team has won the first two games of this series. The Liberty pulled off a 76-69 overtime win in Game 1, while the Mercury rolled to an 86-60 victory in Game 2.
Phoenix is a 2.5-point favorite against the defending champions, with a spot in the semifinals up for grabs.
Here’s a look at the latest WNBA odds and my favorite Liberty vs. Mercury prediction:
Liberty vs. Mercury Odds for Game 3: Spread, Total, Moneyline
- Liberty spread: +2.5
- Mercury spread: -2.5
- Total: 156.5
Liberty vs. Mercury Prediction for Game 3 on Sept. 19
My Liberty vs. Mercury prediction believes Phoenix will win Friday’s Game 3 to knock off the defending champions and earn a matchup with the Minnesota Lynx in the semifinals.
The Mercury have been the better team in this series. Alyssa Thomas, Phoenix’s best player, missed a potential go-ahead layup with two seconds left in the fourth quarter. She also missed a pair of free throws in the closing minutes.
In Game 2, there was no suspense about who would win. The Mercury outscored the Liberty 26-12 in the second quarter and never looked back.
More importantly, Breanna Stewart, who suffered a leg injury in overtime of Game 1, was ineffective on Wednesday. She posted a -24 point differential, finishing with six points and two rebounds in 20 minutes.
If Stewart isn’t 100%, this Liberty team looks a lot different. They went 5-8 in the 13 games without Stewart during the regular season, ranking 10th in the league with a net rating of -3.1.
According to the WNBA’s on-off splits, no New York player had a bigger difference in net rating than Stewart this season. The Liberty were +10.4 with her on the court and -1.1 without her.
I’m tempted to wait for a better price on the Mercury, as the market might like the Liberty as road underdogs. But Phoenix is my preferred side in Friday’s Game 3.
Prediction: Mercury ML (-145) – Pick made Thursday
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