- Get WNBA expert picks and analysis for Aces vs. Mercury.
- Phoenix is a 4.5-point favorite for Game 3.
- The Aces are -400 to win the WNBA Finals.
The Phoenix Mercury hope a change of scenery will be enough to flip the script in the WNBA Finals when they host the Las Vegas Aces for Game 3 at 8 p.m. ET on Wednesday at PHX Arena on ESPN.
The Aces are up 2-0 after a pair of home wins, holding off the Mercury in their 89-86 win in Game 1 before cruising to a 91-78 victory in Sunday’s Game 2. Phoenix will get two days off to make adjustments in hopes of getting into the win column of this seven-game series.
Phoenix is favored to take care of business in Wednesday’s Game 3, but Las Vegas is -400 to win its third title in four years.
Here’s a look at the latest WNBA odds and my favorite Aces vs. Mercury prediction for Game 3:
Aces vs. Mercury Odds for Game 3: Spread, Total, Moneyline
- Aces spread: +4.5
- Mercury spread: -4.5
- Total: 163.5
Aces vs. Mercury Prediction: Game 3 on Oct. 8
Based on the initial WNBA betting lines, I’m laying the points with Phoenix’s spread (-3.5) as my favorite Aces vs. Mercury prediction ahead of Wednesday’s Game 3.
The Aces have been in this position before, taking a 2-0 series lead in the WNBA Finals in 2022 and 2023. They lost Game 3 on the road in both instances, suffering a 29-point defeat in 2022 and a 14-point loss in 2023.
What makes me feel even more confident that this is a letdown spot for Las Vegas is that this year marks the first best-of-seven series in WNBA Finals history. The Aces have even more margin for error this time around.
As a result, I’m interested in adding alternate spreads to my card when those markets become available. This is the ultimate get-right spot for the Mercury, who are 3-1 straight up and ATS at home this postseason.
With two days off to make adjustments, I expect Phoenix head coach Nate Tibbetts to increase Alyssa Thomas’ involvement as the season is on the line.
Thomas ran 18 pick-and-roll screens as the ball-handler in Game 1, forcing Las Vegas to switch to a zone defense to get her out of the middle of the lane. She finished one assist shy of a triple-double (15 points, 10 rebounds, nine assists).
In Game 2, Thomas was involved in just six pick-and-rolls as the initiator. She tallied 10 points and five assists in the loss. The Mercury need her to put pressure on Las Vegas’ guards.
That is an easy fix, which is why the Mercury are favored to bounce back in Game 3. I wouldn’t be surprised if the game ends up getting out of hand, either.
Prediction: Mercury -3.5 – Pick made Monday
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