UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic Fight Card, Predictions, & Odds

The highly anticipated match between two MMA legends goes down on Nov. 16 inside the Madison Square Garden in New York, as Jon Jones defends his UFC heavyweight title against Stipe Miocic.

Because of his impressive heavyweight debut in March 2023 against Ciryl Gane, which crowned him as the division’s undisputed king, Jones heads into the match as the heavy betting favorite with -625 UFC odds.

On the other hand, Miocic will come into the championship match as the considerable betting underdog with +435 odds at BetMGM’s online sportsbook, primarily due to his three-year hiatus from action.

Jon Jones vs. Stipe Miocic Odds

• Jon Jones: -625
• Stipe Miocic: +435

Jon Jones vs. Stipe Miocic: Prediction

Jones’ elite fight IQ and well-rounded MMA skill set are far superior to Miocic, and I predict that he’ll get a submission finish in this championship clash. Once he gets a hold of his opponent, Jones almost doesn’t let go of them and maneuvers his way to a TKO/KO or submission victory.

Aside from his superior tactical intelligence, Jones is ahead by 4.5 inches in reach, 6 inches in leg reach, and is five years younger than Miocic in the Tale of the Tape. These advantages will be fully displayed once they are locked inside the octagon.

Additionally, the defending champion hasn’t lost a fight inside the octagon except for the disqualification loss he received from Matt Hamill in December 2009, in which he landed an illegal strike.

Meanwhile, Miocic is a heavy hitter and a natural heavyweight fighter, unlike Jones, who was from the light heavyweight division. The challenger can impose his power against Jones and possibly score a knockout to potentially become a three-time heavyweight champion.

However, Miocic’s biggest drawback is his age. Although he has the same impressive skills as Jones, who can fight in the striking and grappling departments, he doesn’t have the same explosiveness and athleticism as five years ago.

I believe “Bones” will fully take advantage of this ring rust of Miocic and ragdoll him with his higher-level Grecko-Roman wrestling en route to submission victory. This could cement Jones’ claim as the greatest mixed martial arts fighter in history if he pulls off an impressive win.

Jon Jones Recent Fight Results

Jones was a former undisputed UFC light heavyweight champion who reigned for almost a decade in the division. Several notable opponents he defeated during this stretch were Shogun Rua, Lyoto Machida, Alexander Gustafsson, Daniel Cormier, and Vitor Belfort.

“Bones” vacated the light heavyweight throne to move up in the heavyweight division in 2023. He was booked to fight Gane for the vacant title and made quick work of him by scoring a first-round submission.

Stipe Miocic Recent Fight Results

Miocic made his promotional debut in October 2011 after winning his first six professional MMA fights. In his maiden campaign under the Las Vegas-based promotion, he defeated Bobby Beltran via unanimous decision at UFC 136.

He became the division’s king in May 2016 when he finished Fabricio Werdum in their championship match at UFC 198. Since that triumph, he has won five of his next seven fights inside the octagon.

Jon Jones vs. Stipe Miocic: Tale of the Tape