Spain vs. England Prediction, Odds | Euro 2024

We’ve reached the pinnacle of Europe’s top international tournament. On Sunday in Berlin, Spain and England will battle for a Euro title. 

England, which famously lost to Italy on penalty kicks in the 2021 final, enters this match an underdog after dispatching the Netherlands 2-1. 

Spain continued their streak of never reaching penalties in the semis. They captured a 2-1 win over France, despite conceding the first goal. 

This century, Spain has reached three major tournament finals. They’ve won all three. 

Here’s a look at the Euro 2024 odds and my prediction for Sunday’s match. 

Spain vs. England Odds

• Spain Moneyline: +145
• England Moneyline: +240
• Draw Moneyline: +185
• Total Goals: 2.5 (+138/-190)
• Both Teams to Score: Yes (+100), No (-140)

Who Will Score a Goal in Spain vs. England? 

Based on current betting odds, Harry Kane (+195) is the most likely to score a goal in the Euro 2024 final. 

English teammate Ollie Watkins (+220) follows Kane on the board with Ivan Toney and Alvaro Morata (both +230) not far behind. 

Spain vs. England: How Many Corner Kicks Will There Be? 

Based on the current line of 8.5 corner kicks, I predict the UNDER will hit in Spain vs. England. 

In six England games this tournament, under 8.5 corners has hit five times. The only failure came against Slovakia, where England played from behind most of the game. 

Meanwhile, Spanish games are 4-2 to under against 8.5 corner kicks. Only games against Georgia and the Netherlands saw the match feature at least nine corners. 

Spain vs. England Prediction: Same Game Parlay

My prediction for Sunday’s final is a Same Game Parlay: Spain Spread (+0.5) and Under 2.5 Goals (+105).

There’s no denying England’s performance against the Netherlands was their best this tournament. 

However, Spain has impressed me more this tournament against more difficult opposition. 

En route to the final, Spain played four matches against teams 16th or better in the FIFA rankings. England have played only one such match: the semifinal against the Netherlands. 

Both teams have avoided defeat at the end of 90 minutes in all five of those matches with Spain staying within 0.5 non-penalty expected goals in all four. 

For that reason, a Spanish defeat at the end of 90 minutes feels unlikely. 

In terms of the game total, this feels like a good sell-high spot after both semi-finals featured ample goals. 

The four teams combined to score six goals — including five from open play — off 3.64 expected goals and 2.85 non-penalty expected goals, per fotmob.com. 

Plus, England have shown they need to ball to generate chances. In their lone match this tournament they played with a minority of the ball; they created only 0.9 xG. 

Spain will have the ball for most of the game, but England’s defensive structure should limit their opposition’s chances. 

After all, Spain have created only 1.05 expected goals per 90 minutes in two knockout matches. 

Pair that with England’s offensive struggles, and I’ll back this game to finish under 2.5 goals.