- Wolves is predicted to be a -0.5-goal home favorite against Everton.
- Everton has won four of its last five EPL day matches as an away underdog.
- My Wolves vs Everton prediction is the Everton Moneyline (+185).
Wolves aim to end a two-match losing streak on Saturday against Everton.Â
Vitor Pereira’s side continued its skid with a 1-0 defeat at Bournemouth on Matchday 2. Last season, Wolves managed only one point from a possible six against Everton.Â
The Toffees opened their new stadium with a 2-0 win over Brighton. David Moyes’s side now looks to capture a fifth win in its last six as a road underdog.Â
Check out the Premier League odds and my Wolves vs Everton prediction.Â
Wolves vs Everton: Premier League Odds
Everton vs Wolves: Prediction
Based on Everton’s strong metrics against Wolves last season and the historical success of this spot, my Wolves vs Everton prediction is the Everton Moneyline (+185).Â
The Toffees dominated this spot last year. Although they earned only four points from six, Everton posted superior metrics in both meetings.Â
A 4-0 home win over Wolves proved the bigger success. In that match, Everton won the post-shot xG battle 0.83-0.38, per fotmob.com.Â
The team, from a metrics standpoint, played better at Wolves. Moyes led the team for that fixture, a 1-1 draw that favored Everton 1.5-1.1 on post-shot xG.Â
How Wolves create against Everton’s defense remains a mystery to me. Without Matheus Cunha and Rayan Ait-Nouri, the attack has looked anemic to start the year.Â
For Wolves to take points here, bettors need to think the attack performs well. Last season, Everton finished 10-12-5 (W-D-L) when allowing one or fewer goals.Â
This season, the defense has really only conceded big chances via the penalty spot.Â
Remove penalty kicks against Brighton and Leeds, and bettors will find Everton surrendered only 0.54 post-shot xGA per 90 from open play.Â
Last season, Everton conceded 0.8 post-shot xGA or fewer 13 times. They went 6-4-3 (W-D-L) in those matches.Â
History also likes the spot to back Everton earning all three points.Â
Since 2012, teams priced between -131 and +246 are 119-109 SU, assuming a few additional factors:
- The opponent’s previous game margin is -2 or -1
- The team’s result in the last meeting is +0 or +1
- The previous game the team was the home team
- The previous game the opponent was the underdog
Just between +177 and +246 on the consensus line: 40-41 SU with those teams earning points 60 times in 81 tries.Â
Given those factors, I like the price on Everton to bag a second straight win.Â
Premier League Match Schedule
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Tottenham | Manchester United | Nov. 8 | 7:30 a.m. | Tottenham Hotspur Stadium |
| Everton | Fulham | Nov. 8 | 10 a.m. | Hill Dickinson Stadium |
| West Ham United | Burnley | Nov. 8 | 10 a.m. | London Stadium |
| Sunderland | Arsenal | Nov. 8 | 12:30 p.m. | Stadium of Light |
| Chelsea | Wolves | Nov. 8 | 3 p.m. | Stamford Bridge |
| Aston Villa | Bournemouth | Nov. 9 | 9 a.m. | Villa Park |
| Brentford | Newcastle United | Nov. 9 | 9 a.m. | GTech Community Stadium |
| Crystal Palace | Brighton & Hove Albion | Nov. 9 | 9 a.m. | Selhurst Park |
| Nottingham Forest | Leeds United | Nov. 9 | 9 a.m. | The City Ground |
| Manchester City | Liverpool | Nov. 9 | 11:30 a.m. | Etihad Stadium |
Premier League ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS% | Home ATS Record | Home ATS% | Road ATS Record | Road ATS% |
| Arsenal | 4-3-3 | 55.0% | 2-2-1 | 50.0% | 2-1-2 | 60.0% |
| Aston Villa | 3-5-2 | 40.0% | 2-2-1 | 50.0% | 1-3-1 | 30.0% |
| Bournemouth | 6-2-2 | 70.0% | 4-0-1 | 90.0% | 2-2-1 | 50.0% |
| Brentford | 5-4-1 | 55.0% | 4-0-1 | 90.0% | 1-4-0 | 20.0% |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 4-6-0 | 40.0% | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 1-4-0 | 20.0% |
| Burnley | 6-2-2 | 70.0% | 4-0-1 | 90.0% | 2-2-1 | 50.0% |
| Chelsea | 5-5-0 | 50.0% | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 3-2-0 | 60.0% |
| Crystal Palace | 6-4-0 | 60.0% | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 4-1-0 | 80.0% |
| Everton | 3-4-3 | 45.0% | 2-2-1 | 50.0% | 1-2-2 | 40.0% |
| Fulham | 5-3-2 | 60.0% | 4-0-1 | 90.0% | 1-3-1 | 30.0% |
| Leeds United | 4-5-1 | 45.0% | 3-1-1 | 70.0% | 1-4-0 | 20.0% |
| Liverpool | 4-5-1 | 45.0% | 3-1-1 | 80.0% | 1-4-0 | 20.0% |
| Manchester City | 6-3-1 | 65.0% | 4-1-0 | 80.0% | 2-2-1 | 50.0% |
| Manchester United | 4-6-0 | 40.0% | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 1-4-0 | 20.0% |
| Newcastle United | 2-6-2 | 30.0% | 1-3-1 | 30.0% | 1-3-1 | 30.0% |
| Nottingham Forest | 3-7-0 | 30.0% | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 1-4-0 | 20.0% |
| Sunderland | 7-2-1 | 75.0% | 4-0-1 | 90.0% | 3-1-1 | 70.0% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 6-4-0 | 60.0% | 1-4-0 | 20.0% | 5-0-0 | 100.0% |
| West Ham United | 3-6-1 | 35.0% | 1-4-0 | 20.0% | 2-2-1 | 50.0% |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 3-7-0 | 30.0% | 1-4-0 | 20.0% | 2-3-0 | 40.0% |
Premier League Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Arsenal | 8-1-1 | 25 | 15 |
| Manchester City | 6-1-3 | 19 | 12 |
| Bournemouth | 5-3-2 | 18 | 3 |
| Liverpool | 6-0-4 | 18 | 4 |
| Sunderland | 5-3-2 | 18 | 4 |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 5-2-3 | 17 | 9 |
| Chelsea | 5-2-3 | 17 | 7 |
| Manchester United | 5-2-3 | 17 | 1 |
| Crystal Palace | 4-4-2 | 16 | 5 |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 4-3-3 | 15 | 2 |
| Aston Villa | 4-3-3 | 15 | -1 |
| Brentford | 4-1-5 | 13 | -1 |
| Newcastle United | 3-3-4 | 12 | -1 |
| Everton | 3-3-4 | 12 | -3 |
| Fulham | 3-2-5 | 11 | -2 |
| Leeds United | 3-2-5 | 11 | -8 |
| Burnley | 3-1-6 | 10 | -7 |
| West Ham United | 2-1-7 | 7 | -11 |
| Nottingham Forest | 1-3-6 | 6 | -12 |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 0-2-8 | 2 | -15 |
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