West Ham vs. Everton Prediction, Odds: Premier League Betting

Two teams off poor losses meet on Saturday at the London Stadium, with West Ham hosting Everton. 

West Ham fell 3-0 at Nottingham Forest due to a red card at the end of the first half. It marks two defeats in the Hammers’ last three league games. 

Everton suffered an embarrassing defeat at Southampton, ending a five-match unbeaten run. To make matters worse, Everton’s 1-0 defeat was unlucky based on expected goals. 

Check out the Premier League odds and my West Ham vs. Everton prediction. 

Premier League Odds: West Ham vs. Everton

Premier League Betting: West Ham vs. Everton Prediction

My West Ham vs. Everton prediction depends on whether Jarrad Branthwaite appears in the Starting XI. 

If he starts, I’m backing the Everton Spread (+0.5, -135). If he doesn’t start, I’ll take a SGP: Both Teams to Score + Over 2.5 Goals (+100). 

While the result against Southampton looks really bad, Everton ran unlucky in that match. The Toffees won the expected goals battle 1.6-0.7 with a +0.1 edge on post-shot xG. 

I’ll chalk that up to bad luck for Everton, which also had a goal ruled out late thanks to Beto’s toenail occupying an offside position. 

Plus, Everton have stayed within 0.5 post-shot expected goals in six straight matches now and match a historically profitable system. 

Half-goal dogs against previous road underdogs in games 2-14 are 70% ATS since 2012, assuming the juice falls between -205 and +102. 

When those dogs lost by two or more goals in the previous meeting: 14-3 ATS. 

But if Branthwaite doesn’t play, I suddenly have no faith in Everton’s defense to hold against a decent West Ham attack. 

Branthwaite even played in the last meeting, and Everton allowed 2.9 post-shot xG. 

Plus, West Ham has cleared two post-shot xG in each of their previous two home games and have only stayed under one xG at home vs. Chelsea and Manchester City. 

The issue? West Ham’s defense possesses little quality. 

Albeit against a pretty difficult schedule, Julen Lopetgeui’s side sits 16th in non-penalty expected goals conceded. 

Plus, this total also matches a historically profitable system. 

Since 2012, totals set at 2.5 are 66% to the over, assuming three factors:

• The home team’s previous game margin falls between -8 and -2
• The home team’s game number falls between 8 and 38
• The away team’s average number of goals allowed falls between 1.3 and 1.8. 

Just since the 2021 Premier League season, those games are 64-29 (68.8%) to the over.