Tottenham vs. Man City Prediction, Expert Pick | EPL – BetMGM

It’s the match that’s likely to decide the Premier League title this season. 

Manchester City will play their game in hand at Tottenham, who are simultaneously chasing a Champions League spot. If City win, they’re likely to win the title. 

However, Tottenham have proved a bogey team for the Cityzens under Pep Guardiola. In their last five trips to face Tottenham, City is a dismal 1-4 SU. 

Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my prediction for Tuesday’s fixture. 

EPL Odds – Tottenham vs. Man City

• Tottenham Moneyline: +550
• Man City Moneyline: -250
• Draw Moneyline: +450
• Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (-145/+105)

Premier League Prediction – Tottenham vs. Man City

Tottenham Moneyline (+550) – Wait for Liverpool-Aston Villa Result

If Aston Villa drop all three points against Liverpool on Monday, I believe Tottenham is worth a flier on the moneyline. 

At their current odds, Tuesday’s hosts have a 15.4% implied probability to win on Tuesday and end City’s eight-match winning streak in the league. 

Although Spurs have myriad injury issues to overcome, there are two historical systems to suggest they have a higher chance to win than these odds suggest. 

Since the 2012-13 season, home underdogs sitting at +251 or higher have won 24% of the time (92-291), assuming two factors:

• The underdog’s previous game margin is between +0 and +3
• The previous head-to-head result was between -8 and +0

Additionally, Spurs fit another system that suggests underdogs, irrespective of venue, are worth a bet. 

Across the same timeframe, underdogs in games 18-38 are 28.5% SU (77-193), assuming three factors:

• The previous head-to-head result was between -4 and +0
• The underdog’s previous game margin is between +1 and +4
• The opponent’s previous game margin is between +1 and +5

Although Tottenham just lost at home against Arsenal, a comparable team to Manchester City, they remain 13-5 SU at home this season. 

Plus, Manchester City has struggled on the road against quality competition. 

Tottenham will be the sixth side City has faced that possesses a home expected goal differential per 90 at +0.55 or higher. 

In the five other contests, City is 1-2-2 (W-L-D). 

As a result, I expect City either blows Tottenham out of the water or they lose outright. Assuming Spurs are properly motivated, they’re worth a sprinkle at +500 or better. 

Tottenham Form 

May 11 vs. Burnley: 2-1, W

May 5 at Liverpool: 2-4, L

May 2 at Chelsea: 0-2, L

April 28 vs. Arsenal: 2-3, L

April 13 at Newcastle United: 0-4, L

Man City Form

May 11 at Fulham: 4-0, W

May 4 vs. Wolves: 5-1, W

April 28 at Nottingham Forest: 2-0, W

April 25 at Brighton: 4-0, W

April 20 vs. Chelsea: 1-0, W (FA Cup)

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