- Tottenham is predicted to be a 0.5-goal home underdog against Liverpool.
- Liverpool has scored at least once in 25 straight EPL matches as a road favorite.
- My Tottenham vs Liverpool prediction is the Total Under 2.5 Goals (+115).
The marquee fixture of the Premier League weekend pits Tottenham against Liverpool in London.Â
Tottenham fell 2-0 at Nottingham Forest last weekend. The loss leaves Tottenham 11th in the league table, with only one win since November 1.Â
Liverpool cruised to a 2-0 win over Brighton at home last weekend. Arne Slot’s side currently sits seventh in the EPL table, 10 points adrift of the league lead.Â
Check out the Premier League odds and my Tottenham vs Liverpool prediction.Â
Tottenham vs Liverpool: Premier League Odds
Liverpool vs Tottenham: Prediction
Based on Tottenham’s inability to score and Liverpool’s missing attacking pieces, my Liverpool vs Tottenham prediction is Under 2.5 Goals (+115).Â
Stomaching a Liverpool under is a slightly scary thought. But I’m confident the defense shows up and puts together a good performance.Â
Tottenham simply can’t create many chances. Thomas Frank’s side ranks 17th in expected goals and 10th in post-shot expected goals.Â
Essentially, that means Tottenham’s goals are bangers from distance that are low in shot quality. This season, Tottenham has scored 25 goals off 15.1 expected.Â
For Liverpool, it’s the fifth time this season they’ve faced a bottom-six xGF attack. They surrendered only one goal in the previous four off 1.2 xG.Â
But the Liverpool attack should struggle to create in this match. Tottenham, with both Micky van de Ven and Cristian Romero, are a markedly better defense than with either out.Â
Recently, Tottenham closed as a home underdog to Manchester United with that duo. Although they conceded twice, it came off 0.8 xG and 1.2 post-shot xG.Â
Plus, Liverpool will be missing basically all their key creators. Mo Salah, Dominik Szoboszlai and Cody Gakpo are all going to miss this match.Â
In Premier League play this season, those three players account for 42% of Liverpool’s non-penalty xG plus expected assists tally.Â
With those players out, I question how Liverpool creates meaningful chances.
Based on those factors, I predict this match finishes under the total at a higher rate than these odds suggest.Â
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