Tottenham vs Fulham Prediction, Odds & Match Preview

Tottenham closes out an eventful week as short home favorites against Fulham. 

This marks the third match in six days for Tottenham. Thomas Frank’s side played rivals Arsenal on Sunday and faces a trip to PSG midweek for a Champions League fixture. 

Tottenham plays a rested Fulham side off a 1-0 home win against Sunderland. The result lifted Marco Silva’s side to 15th and earned the Irons a second straight home win. 

Check out the Premier League odds and my Tottenham vs Fulham prediction. 

Tottenham vs Fulham: Premier League Odds

Fulham vs Tottenham: Prediction

Based on Tottenham’s short rest schedule and the team’s potential negative offensive regression, my Tottenham vs Fulham prediction is Tottenham Under 1.5 Goals (-125). 

Tottenham has cleared this benchmark only twice at home. Those successes came against Burnley and Manchester United. 

Entering Matchday 12, those two defenses owned the two worst defensive record by non-penalty expected goals against, per fbref.com. 

Tottenham stayed under this number in all four of the remaining home fixtures. Additionally, the team’s attack enters this matchup as a massive negative regression candidate. 

Excluding Sunday’s match at Arsenal, Frank’s side has scored 19 goals off 11 expected goals. At home, Tottenham has managed seven tallies off 5.2 xG. 

Only Bournemouth and Burnley have created fewer xG at home than Tottenham. That’s not even accounting for the rest advantage for Fulham as well. 

Plus, Fulham’s defense has experienced a lot of bad luck, particularly away from home. 

Fulham has allowed two or more goals in five straight away from home. However, the defense has conceded 13 road goals off 9.4 expected. 

Even by post-shot xG: 13 road goals allowed off 10.3 psxGA. 

In this spot, I like the potential positive regression for Fulham. Last season, Silva set up a strong defensive strategy against Tottenham.

Albeit under different management, Tottenham finished under 1.5 goals in both head-to-head meetings with Fulham. At home, the attack scored once off 1.05 post-shot xG. 

As a result, I predict Tottenham will finish under this benchmark for the fifth time at home.