Premier League Expert Picks: Matchday 2

Below, bettors can find my Premier League Expert Picks for Matchday 2. 

The slate opens with Chelsea vs West Ham on Friday. Other marquee matches include Man City vs Tottenham on Saturday morning and Newcastle vs Liverpool on Monday. 

Elsewhere, Aston Villa travels to Brentford while Arsenal hosts Leeds United. 

Let’s dive into my predictions for Matchday 2. Premier League odds are reflective at the time of writing and are subject to change. 

Premier League Predictions Today: Matchday 2

Man City vs Tottenham Prediction: Tottenham 1H Over 0.5 (+150)

Based on Tottenham’s offensive success against Man City last season and City’s penchant for early goals at home, my Man City vs Tottenham prediction is Tottenham 1H Over 0.5 (). 

Don’t let City’s defensive performance at Wolves fool you. It came against a team that ranked toward the bottom of last year’s attacking ranks….with a worse version of that squad. 

In 2024, Wolves ranked 16th in expected goals and 14th in post-shot expected goals, per fbref.com. 

They also sold both Matheus Cunha and Rayan Ait-Nouri this summer. Combined, those two amassed 31.1% of Wolves’ non-penalty xG plus expected assists. 

Accordingly, it comes as no surprise City limited Wolves to only 0.44 post-shot xG. 

Tottenham possess a radically better attack. That renders this a strong sell-high spot on the City defense. 

Last year, Spurs ranked ninth in both xG and post-shot xG. However, the team dominated Man City. 

In two matches without Rodri – he won’t feature on Saturday – City allowed Tottenham to create 3.84 xG and 5.13 post-shot xG, per fotmob.com. 

At City, Tottenham scored four goals off 3.43 post-shot xG. 

That should lead to big chances for Tottenham, especially in the first half. Over City’s last 27 home matches, all but two have seen a first-half goal. 

While City accounts for most of that scoring, opponents have succeeded early. Of those 27 first halves at the Etihad, City conceded a first-half goal 15 times, a 55.6% hit rate. 

It gets worse for City over a smaller sample. In 19 home matches last season, opponents found a first-half tally 11 times (57.9%). 

Given those factors, I like the price on Tottenham to slip an early tally past the City defense. 

Brentford vs Aston Villa Prediction: Aston Villa Moneyline (+120)

Based on Villa’s record turning in a strong defensive result and the historical success of early road favorites, my Brentford vs Aston Villa prediction is the Aston Villa Moneyline (). 

A clear trend emerged with Aston Villa last season. When the defense played well and limited goals, Villa usually picked up all three points. 

Unai Emery’s side finished 18-4-0 (W-D-L) when conceding one or fewer goals last year. That includes a pair of wins over Brentford – 1-0 on the road, 3-1 at home. 

Comparatively, Villa finished 1-5-10 (W-D-L) when conceding two or more goals. 

Brentford sold off virtually all its key attacking pieces this summer. Bryan Mbeumo and Yoanne Wissa won’t feature in this match – last year, the duo accounted for 52% of Brentford’s xG tally. 

Even with those two, Brentford struggled to create in the last match against Villa. 

At home, the Bees generated only 0.8 expected goals and 0.7 post-shot xG, per fotmob.com. 

The duo also featured in the first meeting at Villa. Brentford staggered to only one expected goal and 0.6 post-shot xG. 

How they turn around and best those outputs this early remains a complete mystery to me. 

Villa has also owned Brentford over a larger sample size. Over the last eight head-to-head meetings, Villa recorded a 4-3-1 (W-D-L) record. 

History also suggests it’s a good spot to back road favorites early in the season. 

Since 2012, road favorites between -165 and +151 in matches 1-6 are 72-37 SU, assuming the previous head-to-head margin falls between -2 and +2. 

Those factors, along with the underlying metrics, lead me to Villa to earn all three points. 

Burnley vs Sunderland Prediction: Sunderland Moneyline (+220)

Based on Sunderland’s success against Burnley in the Championship and the market disrespect of the visitors, my Burnley vs Sunderland prediction is the Sunderland Moneyline (). 

In what world should Sunderland close a market underdog to Burnley after its Matchday 1 result? 

On paper, this match could prove a trap. Bettors are buying high on Sunderland off a massive performance, while Burnley finds itself in a natural buy-low spot. 

What keeps me away from that angle is the market perception of these teams. If Sunderland were a road favorite here, I would at least consider taking Burnley to cover. 

But the fact Sunderland is an underdog completely erases that consideration. 

Even if you discount that angle, Sunderland owned Burnley in the English second tier last season. 

Regis Le Bris’s side finished 1-1-0 (W-D-L) in two meetings with the Clarets. 

In the last meeting – a trip to Turf Moor – Sunderland won the xG battle 2.85-0.7 and the post-shot xG battle 1.6-0.45, per fotmob.com. 

Even if you remove Sunderland’s penalty: 1.3-0.7 on xG, 0.8-0.45 on post-shot xG. 

History also suggests Sunderland occupy a buy spot for this match. 

Early in the season, short dogs have performed well against previous road underdogs. 

Since 2012, half-goal road dogs in fixtures 2-18 are 96-51 ATS, assuming two factors:

• The underdog closed as an underdog in its last match
• The favorite closed as a road underdog in its last match

When those favorites lost by two or more goals in the previous match: 27-8 ATS, including 25-6 when the loss came by two or three goals. 

That angle suggests that, at minimum, the worst Sunderland does here in a draw. However, a slight variation of the system suggests it wins outright. 

Over the same span, road dogs priced at +0.5 are 27-57 SU (32.1%), assuming two factors:

• Both teams closed as underdogs in their previous matches
• The favorite’s previous game margin is -2 or -3

Newcastle vs Liverpool Prediction: Liverpool Moneyline (-102)

Based on Newcastle’s lack of attacking success in the last meeting against Liverpool, my Newcastle vs Liverpool prediction is the Liverpool Moneyline (). 

Alexander Isak likely won’t feature for this matchup as he vies for a move from Newcastle to….Liverpool. 

That severely hinders the Newcastle attack. In good news for bettors, we have a record of what the Newcastle attack looks like against Liverpool sans Isak. 

Albeit at Anfield, Newcastle operated without Isak last February. The match ended 2-0 in favor of the Reds, which limited Newcastle to 0.2 expected goals, per fbref.com. 

Even more concerning for Newcastle? They failed to put a shot on target against Liverpool. 

While Newcastle picked up points in a 3-3 draw at home against Liverpool, circumstances must be noted. Liverpool traveled on only three days’ rest in the most difficult part of the schedule. 

This time around, Arne Slot’s side will play on extended rest. To begin the season, Liverpool opened at home against Bournemouth 10 days before this match.

Plus, the consistent thread across both matches last year was Liverpool’s dominance in attack. 

The Reds created 3.7 expected goals and 4.53 post-shot xG across both meetings, per fotmob.com. That includes 3.44 post-shot xG at St. James’ Park. 

History also suggests this is a good spot to back the Reds. Dating back to 2012, road favorites tend to perform well early in the season. 

Since 2012, road favorites between -165 and +115 in matches 1-6 are 50-14 SU, assuming the previous head-to-head margin falls between -2 and +2. 

Just at a +1 or +2 margin: 25-7 SU, including 8-3 at +2.

One last stat to note: In four matches last year without Isak, Newcastle never scored more than once. 

Last year, Liverpool posted a 23-2-1 (W-D-L) record when conceding one or fewer goals. Based on those outputs, I like Liverpool to earn all three points.