- Nottm Forest is predicted to be a -0.5-goal home favorite against West Ham.
- Forest has won three straight league meetings against West Ham.
- My Nottm Forest vs West Ham prediction is the Nottingham Forest Moneyline (-140).
Nottingham Forest aims for a fourth straight league win over West Ham on Sunday.Â
Forest earned a point at Crystal Palace on Sunday. After falling behind 1-0 in the first half, the visitors used a second-half equalizer to leave London with points.Â
West Ham briefly took a 1-0 lead over Chelsea on Matchday 2. However, five unanswered goals resigned the Hammers to a second defeat to open the season.Â
Check out the Premier League odds and my Nottm Forest vs West Ham prediction.Â
Nottm Forest vs West Ham: Premier League Odds
West Ham vs Nottm Forest: Prediction
Based on the rest advantage for Forest and the team’s success against bad teams last year, my Nottm Forest vs West Ham prediction is the Nottingham Forest Moneyline (-140).Â
A time will come when bettors get to sell Nottingham Forest. However, this is not the time, especially given the current price against a struggling West Ham team.Â
Sunday’s match presents a brutal spot for West Ham. Graham Potter’s side plays on short rest after a League Cup fixture, while Forest faces no such fixture.Â
If that weren’t enough, they face a Forest side that dominated them over two meetings last season.Â
A red card for West Ham flaws the metrics from the meeting at the City Ground.Â
Even before Forest gained a man advantage, they held a 1-0 lead with a +0.91 post-shot xGDiff, per fotmob.com.Â
Surely West Ham played better at home with the team’s new manager?Â
They did not.Â
Forest won 2-1 at the London Stadium – no advantages of any kind – and were unlucky in victory. By post-shot expected goals, the visitors produced a +1.52 post-shot xGDiff.Â
Two other factors are worth mentioning. First, Forest dominated bad teams last year. Here’s a breakdown of the team’s matches based on their opponent’s final expected goal differential:
- 12 matches vs. teams with negative final xGDiff: 10-1-1 (W-D-L) with a +0.86 post-shot xGDiff per 90 minutes
- 26 matches vs. everyone else: 9-7-10 (W-D-L) with a -0.22 post-shot xGDiff per 90 minutes
For this line to be off, you have to think West Ham is a good team. Given Potter’s side lost 3-0 at Sunderland on Matchday 1, I’m inclined to believe they’re not.Â
History also tells us it’s a good spot to back Forest.Â
Since 2012, favorites between -150 and -106 in matches 2-5 are 41-10 SU (80.4%), assuming the last meeting produced a one-goal game either way.Â
Just when those teams won the last meeting by a single goal: 20-5.Â
Given those factors, I like Forest to earn all three points at home.Â
Premier League Match Schedule
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Tottenham | Manchester United | Nov. 8 | 7:30 a.m. | Tottenham Hotspur Stadium |
| Everton | Fulham | Nov. 8 | 10 a.m. | Hill Dickinson Stadium |
| West Ham United | Burnley | Nov. 8 | 10 a.m. | London Stadium |
| Sunderland | Arsenal | Nov. 8 | 12:30 p.m. | Stadium of Light |
| Chelsea | Wolves | Nov. 8 | 3 p.m. | Stamford Bridge |
| Aston Villa | Bournemouth | Nov. 9 | 9 a.m. | Villa Park |
| Brentford | Newcastle United | Nov. 9 | 9 a.m. | GTech Community Stadium |
| Crystal Palace | Brighton & Hove Albion | Nov. 9 | 9 a.m. | Selhurst Park |
| Nottingham Forest | Leeds United | Nov. 9 | 9 a.m. | The City Ground |
| Manchester City | Liverpool | Nov. 9 | 11:30 a.m. | Etihad Stadium |
Premier League ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS% | Home ATS Record | Home ATS% | Road ATS Record | Road ATS% |
| Arsenal | 4-3-3 | 55.0% | 2-2-1 | 50.0% | 2-1-2 | 60.0% |
| Aston Villa | 3-5-2 | 40.0% | 2-2-1 | 50.0% | 1-3-1 | 30.0% |
| Bournemouth | 6-2-2 | 70.0% | 4-0-1 | 90.0% | 2-2-1 | 50.0% |
| Brentford | 5-4-1 | 55.0% | 4-0-1 | 90.0% | 1-4-0 | 20.0% |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 4-6-0 | 40.0% | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 1-4-0 | 20.0% |
| Burnley | 6-2-2 | 70.0% | 4-0-1 | 90.0% | 2-2-1 | 50.0% |
| Chelsea | 5-5-0 | 50.0% | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 3-2-0 | 60.0% |
| Crystal Palace | 6-4-0 | 60.0% | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 4-1-0 | 80.0% |
| Everton | 3-4-3 | 45.0% | 2-2-1 | 50.0% | 1-2-2 | 40.0% |
| Fulham | 5-3-2 | 60.0% | 4-0-1 | 90.0% | 1-3-1 | 30.0% |
| Leeds United | 4-5-1 | 45.0% | 3-1-1 | 70.0% | 1-4-0 | 20.0% |
| Liverpool | 4-5-1 | 45.0% | 3-1-1 | 80.0% | 1-4-0 | 20.0% |
| Manchester City | 6-3-1 | 65.0% | 4-1-0 | 80.0% | 2-2-1 | 50.0% |
| Manchester United | 4-6-0 | 40.0% | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 1-4-0 | 20.0% |
| Newcastle United | 2-6-2 | 30.0% | 1-3-1 | 30.0% | 1-3-1 | 30.0% |
| Nottingham Forest | 3-7-0 | 30.0% | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 1-4-0 | 20.0% |
| Sunderland | 7-2-1 | 75.0% | 4-0-1 | 90.0% | 3-1-1 | 70.0% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 6-4-0 | 60.0% | 1-4-0 | 20.0% | 5-0-0 | 100.0% |
| West Ham United | 3-6-1 | 35.0% | 1-4-0 | 20.0% | 2-2-1 | 50.0% |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 3-7-0 | 30.0% | 1-4-0 | 20.0% | 2-3-0 | 40.0% |
Premier League Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Arsenal | 8-1-1 | 25 | 15 |
| Manchester City | 6-1-3 | 19 | 12 |
| Bournemouth | 5-3-2 | 18 | 3 |
| Liverpool | 6-0-4 | 18 | 4 |
| Sunderland | 5-3-2 | 18 | 4 |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 5-2-3 | 17 | 9 |
| Chelsea | 5-2-3 | 17 | 7 |
| Manchester United | 5-2-3 | 17 | 1 |
| Crystal Palace | 4-4-2 | 16 | 5 |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 4-3-3 | 15 | 2 |
| Aston Villa | 4-3-3 | 15 | -1 |
| Brentford | 4-1-5 | 13 | -1 |
| Newcastle United | 3-3-4 | 12 | -1 |
| Everton | 3-3-4 | 12 | -3 |
| Fulham | 3-2-5 | 11 | -2 |
| Leeds United | 3-2-5 | 11 | -8 |
| Burnley | 3-1-6 | 10 | -7 |
| West Ham United | 2-1-7 | 7 | -11 |
| Nottingham Forest | 1-3-6 | 6 | -12 |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 0-2-8 | 2 | -15 |
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