- Nottingham Forest is predicted to be a 0.5-goal home favorite against Tottenham.
- 'First Half Over 0.5 Goals' has hit in each of Tottenham's last 16 EPL day matches.
- My Nottingham Forest vs Tottenham prediction is Tottenham Draw, No Bet (-102)
After an easy win against Brentford, Tottenham travels to face reeling Nottingham Forest.Â
Thomas Frank handed his former club a 2-0 defeat on Matchday 15. It was the second home win this season by Tottenham, which sits ninth in the table.Â
Nottingham Forest dropped all three points in a 3-0 defeat at Everton on Saturday. It marks the second defeat for Forest in its previous three EPL fixtures.Â
Check out the Premier League odds and my Nottingham Forest vs Tottenham prediction.Â
Nottingham Forest vs Tottenham: Premier League Odds
Tottenham vs Nottingham Forest: Prediction
Based on Tottenham’s strong defense at full strength and Forest’s weak defensive metrics of late, my Nottingham Forest vs Tottenham prediction is Tottenham Draw, No Bet (+110).Â
Perhaps Saturday’s fixture against Brentford marks a turning point for Tottenham. As narrow home favorites, Tottenham actually finished unlucky in a 2-0 win.Â
Expected goals rated the match a 2.15-0.3 win for Tottenham, but post-shot xG rated it a 3.1-0.45 victory, per fotmob.com.Â
That marked Tottenham’s best offensive performance of the season since October 26.
For Tottenham, results have come when the attack shines. Not once this season has Tottenham dropped all three points when a) scoring over 1.5 goals or b) creating at least 1.4 post-shot xG.Â
Now the team gets a Forest defense that hasn’t posted encouraging results of late. Over its last three matches, Forest allowed both Everton and Brighton to clear 1.7 post-shot xG.Â
The team kept a clean sheet at Wolves. However, that’s less than impressive given Wolves rank last in post-shot xG.Â
Additionally, Sunday’s match offers another advantage for Tottenham.Â
Frank’s side plays a home Champions League match on Tuesday before traveling to Forest on Sunday. Meanwhile, Forest has to go to the Netherlands on Thursday for a European fixture.Â
Forest has played five matches on short rest this season. The team is 1-0-4 (W-D-L) with a lone win coming against Leeds United.Â
If Tottenham gains an early advantage, Forest is in trouble.Â
This season, Tottenham owns a +0.65 expected goal differential per 90 minutes with a one-goal lead and a +2.09 xGDiff per 90 with a 2+ goal advantage.Â
For those reasons, I predict Tottenham will do no worse than a draw on Sunday.Â
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