- Liverpool is a -0.5-goal favorite against Nottingham Forest.
- Can Liverpool overcome multiple key injuries to stay in the title race?
- How to back home underdogs Forest in this match.
Before Saturday’s kickoff from The City Ground, I’m set to offer a Nottingham Forest vs. Liverpool prediction.Â
Visitors Liverpool enter this game in good form. Following a 4-1 league in over Luton Town, they captured a League Cup Final win over Chelsea and beat Southampton in the FA Cup.Â
As for Forest, they suffered a heartbreaking 1-0 loss in the FA Cup round of 16 against Manchester United and have dropped all three points in two of their last three league matches.Â
Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my best bet for Saturday’s fixture.Â
EPL Betting Odds – Liverpool vs. Nottingham Forest
- Liverpool Moneyline: -190
- Nottingham Forest Moneyline: +450
- Draw Moneyline: +360
- Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (+110/-150)
EPL Prediction – Liverpool vs. Nottingham Forest
Nottingham Forest 1H Spread (+0.5, -135)
Liverpool, despite their current form, have so many injuries to overcome for this match.Â
All of the following normal starters will likely miss Saturday’s match: Mo Salah, Darwin Nunez, Diogo Jota, Trent Alexander-Arnold, Wataru Endo, Ryan Gravenberch, Curtis Jones, Alisson Becker and Dominik Szoboszlai.Â
As a result, I think Forest are a live underdog for Saturday’s fixture. However, I’ll opt to take them in the first half rather than +1.25 for the full game.Â
In their last five matches, Liverpool have earned an outright win only once (at Brentford).Â
Even in two home fixtures against Burnley and Luton Town – sides with worse underlying metrics than Nottingham Forest – they’ve finished 0-1-1 (W-D-L) in the first half.Â
Although Forest is a dismal 2-5 ATS as home underdogs at market close this season, they’ve proved quite good in the first half.Â
In those seven games, they’re 5-2 ATS in the first half, including two straight covers against Arsenal and Manchester United.Â
Plus, in a midweek FA Cup fixture against the Red Devils, they entered halftime tied 0-0 before losing in the 89th minute.Â
The underlying metrics back up Forest’s first half prowess as well – the Tricky Tress have posted a -0.28 post shot expected goal differential per 90 minutes, per fotmob.com.Â
As a result, I’ll trust them to continue their positive form and enter halftime either ahead or tied with the league leaders.Â
Liverpool FormÂ
Feb. 28 vs. Southampton: 3-0, W (FA Cup)
Feb. 25 vs. Chelsea: 1-0, W (League Cup, AET)
Feb. 21 vs. Luton Town: 4-1, W
Feb. 17 at Brentford: 4-1, W
Feb. 10 vs. Burnley: 3-1, W
Nottingham Forest Form
Feb. 28 vs. Manchester United: 0-1, L (FA Cup)
Feb. 24 at Aston Villa: 2-4, LÂ
Feb. 17 vs. West Ham United: 2-0, W
Feb. 10 vs. Newcastle United: 2-3, L
Feb. 7 vs. Bristol City: 1-1, D (FA Cup, Forest Win on Penalties)
EPL Match Schedule This Weekend
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Tottenham | Manchester United | Nov. 8 | 7:30 a.m. | Tottenham Hotspur Stadium |
| Everton | Fulham | Nov. 8 | 10 a.m. | Hill Dickinson Stadium |
| West Ham United | Burnley | Nov. 8 | 10 a.m. | London Stadium |
| Sunderland | Arsenal | Nov. 8 | 12:30 p.m. | Stadium of Light |
| Chelsea | Wolves | Nov. 8 | 3 p.m. | Stamford Bridge |
| Aston Villa | Bournemouth | Nov. 9 | 9 a.m. | Villa Park |
| Brentford | Newcastle United | Nov. 9 | 9 a.m. | GTech Community Stadium |
| Crystal Palace | Brighton & Hove Albion | Nov. 9 | 9 a.m. | Selhurst Park |
| Nottingham Forest | Leeds United | Nov. 9 | 9 a.m. | The City Ground |
| Manchester City | Liverpool | Nov. 9 | 11:30 a.m. | Etihad Stadium |
EPL Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Arsenal | 8-1-1 | 25 | 15 |
| Manchester City | 6-1-3 | 19 | 12 |
| Bournemouth | 5-3-2 | 18 | 3 |
| Liverpool | 6-0-4 | 18 | 4 |
| Sunderland | 5-3-2 | 18 | 4 |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 5-2-3 | 17 | 9 |
| Chelsea | 5-2-3 | 17 | 7 |
| Manchester United | 5-2-3 | 17 | 1 |
| Crystal Palace | 4-4-2 | 16 | 5 |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 4-3-3 | 15 | 2 |
| Aston Villa | 4-3-3 | 15 | -1 |
| Brentford | 4-1-5 | 13 | -1 |
| Newcastle United | 3-3-4 | 12 | -1 |
| Everton | 3-3-4 | 12 | -3 |
| Fulham | 3-2-5 | 11 | -2 |
| Leeds United | 3-2-5 | 11 | -8 |
| Burnley | 3-1-6 | 10 | -7 |
| West Ham United | 2-1-7 | 7 | -11 |
| Nottingham Forest | 1-3-6 | 6 | -12 |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 0-2-8 | 2 | -15 |
EPL ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS% | Home ATS Record | Home ATS% | Road ATS Record | Road ATS% |
| Arsenal | 4-3-3 | 55.0% | 2-2-1 | 50.0% | 2-1-2 | 60.0% |
| Aston Villa | 3-5-2 | 40.0% | 2-2-1 | 50.0% | 1-3-1 | 30.0% |
| Bournemouth | 6-2-2 | 70.0% | 4-0-1 | 90.0% | 2-2-1 | 50.0% |
| Brentford | 5-4-1 | 55.0% | 4-0-1 | 90.0% | 1-4-0 | 20.0% |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 4-6-0 | 40.0% | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 1-4-0 | 20.0% |
| Burnley | 6-2-2 | 70.0% | 4-0-1 | 90.0% | 2-2-1 | 50.0% |
| Chelsea | 5-5-0 | 50.0% | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 3-2-0 | 60.0% |
| Crystal Palace | 6-4-0 | 60.0% | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 4-1-0 | 80.0% |
| Everton | 3-4-3 | 45.0% | 2-2-1 | 50.0% | 1-2-2 | 40.0% |
| Fulham | 5-3-2 | 60.0% | 4-0-1 | 90.0% | 1-3-1 | 30.0% |
| Leeds United | 4-5-1 | 45.0% | 3-1-1 | 70.0% | 1-4-0 | 20.0% |
| Liverpool | 4-5-1 | 45.0% | 3-1-1 | 80.0% | 1-4-0 | 20.0% |
| Manchester City | 6-3-1 | 65.0% | 4-1-0 | 80.0% | 2-2-1 | 50.0% |
| Manchester United | 4-6-0 | 40.0% | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 1-4-0 | 20.0% |
| Newcastle United | 2-6-2 | 30.0% | 1-3-1 | 30.0% | 1-3-1 | 30.0% |
| Nottingham Forest | 3-7-0 | 30.0% | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 1-4-0 | 20.0% |
| Sunderland | 7-2-1 | 75.0% | 4-0-1 | 90.0% | 3-1-1 | 70.0% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 6-4-0 | 60.0% | 1-4-0 | 20.0% | 5-0-0 | 100.0% |
| West Ham United | 3-6-1 | 35.0% | 1-4-0 | 20.0% | 2-2-1 | 50.0% |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 3-7-0 | 30.0% | 1-4-0 | 20.0% | 2-3-0 | 40.0% |
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