Newcastle vs Man City Prediction, Odds & Match Preview

Man City goes for a third straight Premier League win as short road favorites against Newcastle. 

Before the international break, City captured a 3-0 win over title rivals Liverpool. The win, paired with Arsenal’s draw at Sunderland, keeps City within four points of the league lead. 

Newcastle suffered a second straight 3-1 league defeat before the break. As favorites against West Ham, Eddie Howe’s side dropped all three points for the fourth time in six matches. 

Check out the Premier League odds and my Newcastle vs Man City prediction. 

Newcastle vs Man City: Premier League Odds

Man City vs Newcastle: Prediction

Based on Newcastle’s recent defensive issues and City’s promising early starts, my Newcastle vs Man City prediction is Man City 1H Over 0.5 (-130). 

Full transparency: I’m caught between two minds handicapping this fixture. 

On the one hand, Newcastle has really struggled to defend lately. 

Even if you throw out the Brentford fixture – Newcastle played down a man for two goals against – the defense allowed almost two post-shot expected goals to West Ham. 

Playing at home should improve that output. However, the defense surrendered a first-half tally to Liverpool on Matchday 2 while keeping Arsenal under this benchmark.

City has recorded strong starts this season, even away from home. Pep Guardiola’s attack has scored a first-half goal in eight of 11 games this season, including four of five away from home. 

The only road failure? At Aston Villa, which ranks second in post-shot xG allowed this season. For reference, Newcastle ranks ninth in that metric. 

However, it must be noted that City has run very lucky offensively. 

City has scored 23 goals off 19.3 expected goals this season. Most of that overperformance has come at home, with City scoring seven goals off 7.1 xG on the road. 

But I can’t ignore the fact that City has scored 5.2 goals over its post-shot expectation. That’s the biggest overperformance in the Premier League. 

On the road: seven goals scored off 5.2 post-shot expected. Not since Matchday 1 has City cleared two post-shot expected goals on the road. 

Will that negative regression arrive at Newcastle? My guess is no, given Newcastle’s poor defensive metrics. 

Plus, City has scored a first-half goal in 24 straight league meetings against the Magpies. Given that trend, I’ll buck the potential regression and predict an early tally for the visitors.