Newcastle vs Chelsea Prediction, Odds & Match Preview

The weekend’s EPL action begins at St. James’ Park as Newcastle United hosts Chelsea. 

Newcastle enters Saturday’s match off a 1-0 loss to rivals Sunderland. The loss leaves Eddie Howe’s team 12th in the league table and marked its fourth road loss in its last five trips. 

Chelsea captured a 2-0 win over Everton, ending a three-game winless run for Enzo Maresca’s team. The Blues now try to avenge a 2-0 loss at Newcastle when these teams last met. 

Check out the Premier League odds and my Newcastle vs Chelsea prediction. 

Newcastle vs Chelsea: Premier League Odds

Chelsea vs Newcastle: Prediction

Based on Chelsea’s poor defensive record away from home and Newcastle’s high-scoring matches as a home dog, my Newcastle vs Chelsea prediction is Over 2.5 Goals (-150). 

Newcastle has faced four Big Six sides at home so far. All four fixtures met this benchmark, with two exceeding 3.5 goals. 

From an underlying metrics standpoint, the matches have proved as eventful as advertised. 

Matches against Man City, Arsenal, Tottenham and Liverpool averaged 2.95 expected goals and 3.78 post-shot xG, per fbref.com. 

Newcastle, most impressively, managed two tallies in three of those four matches. The only failure came against Arsenal, which deploys the EPL’s best defense. 

Chelsea’s road matches have also proven particularly eventful. The Blues’ first eight matches are averaging 2.96 expected goals per 90 minutes. 

Recently, the defense shipped 2.3 expected goals to Leeds United and 1.5 xG to Bournemouth. 

They’re also a negative regression candidate on the road, having conceded eight goals off 10.4 xGA. 

Last year, goals proved a staple of this fixture. Newcastle won 2-0 at home thanks to an early red card, but the fixture at Stamford Bridge finished 2-1. 

The latter saw these teams combine for 3.42 xG, 3.12 post-shot xG and four big scoring chances. 

Plus, both teams enter Saturday off short rest. Chelsea plays Tuesday in the EFL Cup while Newcastle travels to Fulham on Wednesday for an EFL Cup tie. 

Given those factors, I predict a high-scoring fixture at St. James’ Park on Saturday.