Manchester United vs. Sheffield United Prediction, Odds, Pick | Premier League Match Preview

Following their FA Cup semifinal win against Coventry City on Sunday, Manchester United return home to face Premier League cellar-dwellers Sheffield United. 

The Red Devils needed penalty kicks to reach the FA Cup final after blowing a 3-0 advantage late in the second half. 

As for Sheffield United, they struggled at home against relegation-threatened Burnley. As short home dogs, they fell 4-1 to the Clarets. 

Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my prediction for Wednesday’s match. 

EPL Betting Odds – Manchester United vs. Sheffield United

• Manchester United Moneyline: -350
• Sheffield United Moneyline: +750
• Draw Moneyline: +500
• Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (-120/-120)

EPL Prediction – Manchester United vs. Sheffield United

Sheffield United Spread (+1.5, +100)

If bettors learned anything from United’s FA Cup semifinal on Sunday, it’s that the backdoor is always open. 

Up 3-0 on Championship side Coventry City, United surrendered three goals in the final 20 minutes + injury time to send the match to extra time. 

United also ran fairly lucky in that match as they lost the post-shot expected goals battle 1.55 to 2.23, per fotmob.com. 

Now they have to turn around and play on short rest. Although the odds suggest they’ll win the match outright, I question if they cover a lofty spread. 

Sample nine matches this season in which United closed at -145 or higher and bettors will find they’re 6-3 SU, but have seen five of those wins come by a single goal. 

Since the beginning of last season, they’re 16-7 SU at -145 or higher but have covered -1.5 in only seven of those 23 matches. 

It’s also not as if they dominated Sheffield United when they last played. United won the match 2-1 but only captured the non-penalty expected goals battle 1.1 to 0.63. 

Plus, there’s a historically profitable system recommending a bet on Sheffield United. 

Since 2012-13, road dogs with a win percentage under 30% are 63.7% ATS, assuming three factors:

• The spread is between +1.5 and +2.5
• The previous head-to-head result was between -1 and -5
• The team’s game number is between 17 and 38

Just this season, those teams are 14-2-1 ATS. 

One final note with a slight caveat – history suggests Sheffield are worth a flier on the moneyline. 

Since 2012-13, road dogs between +355 and +2000 with a win percentage under 28% are 18.9% SU for a 45% return on investment, assuming two factors:

• The previous head-to-head result was between -1 and +1
• The team’s game number is between 18 and 38

However, I’m obliged to mention three teams have fit that profile after allowing two or more goals in seven straight games, a moniker that fits Sheffield. 

Those teams are 0-3 SU in such spots. 

As a result, I’d prefer to take a moneyline position on Burnley at Old Trafford on Saturday. 

That said, even money on Sheffield to stay within a goal is worth a wager on Wednesday. 

Manchester United Form 

April 21 vs. Coventry City: 3-3, D (FA Cup, United Win on PK’s)

April 13 at Bournemouth: 2-2, D

April 7 vs. Liverpool: 2-2, D

April 4 at Chelsea: 3-4, L

March 30 at Brentford: 1-1, D

Sheffield United Form

April 20 vs. Burnley: 1-4, L

April 13 vs. Brentford: 0-2, L

April 7 vs. Chelsea: 2-2, D

April 4 at Liverpool: 1-3, L

March 30 vs. Fulham: 3-3, D

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