- Manchester United is a -1.5-goal home favorite against Everton.
- Manchester United has won eight of its last nine EPL home matches following a draw.
- My Manchester United vs. Everton prediction is the Everton moneyline.
For their second match under new manager Ruben Amorim, Manchester United hosts Everton at Old Trafford.Â
The Red Devils played to a 1-1 draw at Ipswich Town in Amorim’s debut and followed it with a 3-2 midweek win in the Europa League. Currently, United sits 12th in the league table.Â
Everton’s last result in the league proved a 0-0 draw vs. Brentford, despite the Toffees playing with a man advantage. As it stands, Everton sit two points clear from safety.Â
Check out the Premier League odds and my Manchester United vs. Everton prediction.Â
Manchester United vs. Everton Odds, Premier League
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Everton | +1.5 (-200) | 2.5 (-145) | +475 |
| Manchester United | -1.5 (+135) | 2.5 (+105) | -190 |
| Draw | +333 |
Manchester United vs. Everton Prediction
Based on Everton’s strong results against Manchester United last season and their rest advantage, my Manchester United vs. Everton prediction is the Everton Moneyline (+475).Â
Don’t let United’s 5-0 differential over Everton last year fool you: This fixture played incredibly close based on underlying metrics.Â
So much of United’s success came via the penalty spot. From open play, though, Everton dominated both fixtures.Â
At home, Sean Dyche’s squad posted a +1.04 non-penalty xGDiff compared to a -2 non-penalty goal differential.Â
At Old Trafford, Everton won the non-penalty xG battle 1.6-1.15, with the Toffees surrendering both goals from penalty kicks.Â
The Toffees are finally healthy in defense and carry a rest advantage over Manchester United, who played on Thursday at home.Â
It’s also a nice sell-high spot on United, which played to a lucky draw at Ipswich Town last weekend.Â
The match finished 1-1, but Ipswich recorded a 1.6-0.8 edge on expected goals and a 1.7-1.1 edge on post-shot expected goals, per fotmob.com.Â
Everton also fits the historical profile of a team that wins outright in this spot.Â
Since 2012, dogs between +203 and +961 in August, November, December or May are 30% SU, assuming three factors:
- The underdog lost the previous head-to-head meeting
- The underdog’s previous game margin is -1 or 0
- The favorite’s previous game margin falls between -1 and +2
Over the last three seasons, those underdogs are 14-21 SU, including 6-4 SU this year for a 212% return on investment.Â
Take a shot on the Everton moneyline as a result.
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