- Manchester City is a -1.5-goal favorite against Manchester United.
- City defeated United 3-0 at Old Trafford in the reverse fixture.
- Historical systems suggest United is unlikely to win at the Etihad.
It’s this weekend’s marquee Premier League match, and I’m here to offer a Manchester City vs. Manchester United prediction.Â
City produced a 6-2 midweek FA Cup win over Luton Town on the heels of a 1-0 win at Bournemouth last weekend.Â
As for United, they dropped all three points at home to Fulham last weekend after reeling off four consecutive league wins.Â
Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my best bet for Sunday’s fixture.Â
EPL Betting Odds – Manchester City vs. Manchester United
- Manchester City Moneyline: -350
- Manchester United Moneyline: +850
- Draw Moneyline: +500
- Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (-105/-135)
EPL Prediction – Manchester City vs. Manchester United
Manchester City Spread (-1.5, -140)
United has looked terrible on the road against good competition in recent memory.Â
Since the beginning of the 2021-22 season, United is a dismal 4-11 ATS away from home against sides with a win percentage higher than 45%, including 2-3 this season.Â
Just at Liverpool and Arsenal this season – the closest comparisons to City – United is 0-1-1 (W-D-L) with a -3.9 expected goal differential and a -2.3 post shot expected goal differential, per fbref.com.Â
Plus, City matches a pair of historically profitable systems.Â
Since the 2017-18 season, home favorites with a win percentage north of 59% facing a side off a draw or loss as home favorites are 81.6% SU.Â
Moreover, rarely do underdogs notch points after receiving a beatdown in the previous meeting.Â
Since 2017-18, home favorites in games 20-39 that won by at least three goals in the previous meeting are 20-5 SU, assuming their win percentage is higher than 65%.Â
Based on those factors, City should unquestionably win this match. The key question: by how many goals?
If you change the former system from the moneyline to spread – sampling teams -2 or shorter – bettors will find those teams are 68% ATS, including 4-2 ATS this season.Â
When the opponent is coming off a loss, such teams are 64% ATS.Â
As a result, lay the goals with City on Sunday so long as it remains available at -145 or better.Â
Manchester City FormÂ
Feb. 27 at Luton Town: 6-2, W (FA Cup)
Feb. 24 at Bournemouth: 1-0, W
Feb. 20 vs. Brentford: 1-0, W
Feb. 17 vs. Chelsea: 1-1, D
Feb. 13 at Copenhagen: 3-1, W (Champions League
Manchester United Form
Feb. 24 vs. Fulham: 1-2, L
Feb. 18 at Luton Town: 2-1, W
Feb. 11 at Aston Villa: 2-1, W
Feb. 4 vs. West Ham United: 3-0, W
Feb. 1 at Wolves: 4-3, W
EPL Match Schedule This Weekend
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Tottenham | Manchester United | Nov. 8 | 7:30 a.m. | Tottenham Hotspur Stadium |
| Everton | Fulham | Nov. 8 | 10 a.m. | Hill Dickinson Stadium |
| West Ham United | Burnley | Nov. 8 | 10 a.m. | London Stadium |
| Sunderland | Arsenal | Nov. 8 | 12:30 p.m. | Stadium of Light |
| Chelsea | Wolves | Nov. 8 | 3 p.m. | Stamford Bridge |
| Aston Villa | Bournemouth | Nov. 9 | 9 a.m. | Villa Park |
| Brentford | Newcastle United | Nov. 9 | 9 a.m. | GTech Community Stadium |
| Crystal Palace | Brighton & Hove Albion | Nov. 9 | 9 a.m. | Selhurst Park |
| Nottingham Forest | Leeds United | Nov. 9 | 9 a.m. | The City Ground |
| Manchester City | Liverpool | Nov. 9 | 11:30 a.m. | Etihad Stadium |
EPL Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Arsenal | 8-1-1 | 25 | 15 |
| Manchester City | 6-1-3 | 19 | 12 |
| Bournemouth | 5-3-2 | 18 | 3 |
| Liverpool | 6-0-4 | 18 | 4 |
| Sunderland | 5-3-2 | 18 | 4 |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 5-2-3 | 17 | 9 |
| Chelsea | 5-2-3 | 17 | 7 |
| Manchester United | 5-2-3 | 17 | 1 |
| Crystal Palace | 4-4-2 | 16 | 5 |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 4-3-3 | 15 | 2 |
| Aston Villa | 4-3-3 | 15 | -1 |
| Brentford | 4-1-5 | 13 | -1 |
| Newcastle United | 3-3-4 | 12 | -1 |
| Everton | 3-3-4 | 12 | -3 |
| Fulham | 3-2-5 | 11 | -2 |
| Leeds United | 3-2-5 | 11 | -8 |
| Burnley | 3-1-6 | 10 | -7 |
| West Ham United | 2-1-7 | 7 | -11 |
| Nottingham Forest | 1-3-6 | 6 | -12 |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 0-2-8 | 2 | -15 |
EPL ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS% | Home ATS Record | Home ATS% | Road ATS Record | Road ATS% |
| Arsenal | 4-3-3 | 55.0% | 2-2-1 | 50.0% | 2-1-2 | 60.0% |
| Aston Villa | 3-5-2 | 40.0% | 2-2-1 | 50.0% | 1-3-1 | 30.0% |
| Bournemouth | 6-2-2 | 70.0% | 4-0-1 | 90.0% | 2-2-1 | 50.0% |
| Brentford | 5-4-1 | 55.0% | 4-0-1 | 90.0% | 1-4-0 | 20.0% |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 4-6-0 | 40.0% | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 1-4-0 | 20.0% |
| Burnley | 6-2-2 | 70.0% | 4-0-1 | 90.0% | 2-2-1 | 50.0% |
| Chelsea | 5-5-0 | 50.0% | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 3-2-0 | 60.0% |
| Crystal Palace | 6-4-0 | 60.0% | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 4-1-0 | 80.0% |
| Everton | 3-4-3 | 45.0% | 2-2-1 | 50.0% | 1-2-2 | 40.0% |
| Fulham | 5-3-2 | 60.0% | 4-0-1 | 90.0% | 1-3-1 | 30.0% |
| Leeds United | 4-5-1 | 45.0% | 3-1-1 | 70.0% | 1-4-0 | 20.0% |
| Liverpool | 4-5-1 | 45.0% | 3-1-1 | 80.0% | 1-4-0 | 20.0% |
| Manchester City | 6-3-1 | 65.0% | 4-1-0 | 80.0% | 2-2-1 | 50.0% |
| Manchester United | 4-6-0 | 40.0% | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 1-4-0 | 20.0% |
| Newcastle United | 2-6-2 | 30.0% | 1-3-1 | 30.0% | 1-3-1 | 30.0% |
| Nottingham Forest | 3-7-0 | 30.0% | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 1-4-0 | 20.0% |
| Sunderland | 7-2-1 | 75.0% | 4-0-1 | 90.0% | 3-1-1 | 70.0% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 6-4-0 | 60.0% | 1-4-0 | 20.0% | 5-0-0 | 100.0% |
| West Ham United | 3-6-1 | 35.0% | 1-4-0 | 20.0% | 2-2-1 | 50.0% |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 3-7-0 | 30.0% | 1-4-0 | 20.0% | 2-3-0 | 40.0% |
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