Manchester City vs. Brighton: Prediction & Odds

Brighton look to do the double over the reigning champions on Saturday as they face a trip to Manchester City. 

A late penalty gave Brighton all three points as home favorites against Fulham on Saturday. Following the result, Brighton moved to sixth in the league table. 

Man City fell 1-0 to Nottingham Forest as road favorites on Saturday. Paired with Chelsea’s win over Leicester City, City fell out of the Champions League positions. 

Check out the Premier League odds and my Man City vs. Brighton prediction. 

Man City vs. Brighton: Premier League Odds

• Manchester City Moneyline: -150
• Brighton & Hove Albion Moneyline: +340
• Draw Moneyline: +333
• Game Spread: Manchester City -0.5 (-165), Brighton +0.5 (+115)
• Game Over/Under: 3.5 (+110/-155)

Man City vs. Brighton Prediction

Based on the chance quality in the last meeting between these sides and the strength of both attacks, my Man City vs. Brighton prediction is Over 3.5 Goals (+110). 

When these sides met earlier in the year, Brighton earned a 2-1 victory. Whether the outright win was justified or not, the underlying metrics suggest more goals should have come. 

City and Brighton combined for three goals off 4.51 expected goals and 4.53 post-shot expected goals, per fotmob.com. 

City proved particularly unlucky, scoring once off 2.22 xG and 2.98 post-shot expected goals. 

Brighton, which could play without two defenders that featured in that match, have struggled in trips to strong attacks. 

In road matches against Liverpool and Chelsea, the Seagulls surrendered 2.9 xG per 90 minutes and 2.45 post-shot xGA per 90. 

Each of those matches reached three total goals with one clearing 3.5 goals. 

The match that did – a 4-2 Brighton loss at Chelsea – features a similar profile to this match. 

City own a top-five attack by both xG and post-shot xG while sitting eighth and 10th in the corresponding defensive categories. 

Chelsea, meanwhile, own a slightly better attack AND defense. 

That should allow chances aplenty for Brighton, which sits a spot behind Manchester City in post-shot expected goals. 

History also likes this match to clear 3.5 goals on Saturday.

This season, matches featuring a 3.5-goal total are 15-7 to the over, assuming two factors:

• The road team’s average number of goals scored falls between 1.5 and 2
• The road team’s average number of goals allowed falls between 1.2 and 1.5

Brighton sit at 1.6 and 1.4 in those respective categories. Pair that with the high-scoring nature of the last meeting, and I like this match clearing 3.5 goals. 

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