Man City vs. West Ham Prediction, Odds & Match Preview

Seeking a second straight league win, Manchester City returns home for a clash with West Ham United. 

Pep Guardiola’s side clinched a 2-0 road win over Leicester City on Matchday 19, ending a four-match winless run. Still, City sits sixth in the league table after a horrid month. 

West Ham received a 5-0 blowout loss as home dogs to Liverpool on Sunday, ending a four-match unbeaten run. In the last meeting with City, the Hammers fell 3-1. 

Check out the Premier League odds and my Man City vs. West Ham prediction. 

Man City vs. West Ham Odds, Premier League

Man City vs. West Ham Prediction

If West Ham features Jarrod Bowen and Man City doesn’t start Kevin De Bruyne, my Man City vs. West Ham prediction is the West Ham Spread (+1.5, -110). 

Don’t place too much stock into West Ham’s performance against Liverpool, as the hosts operated without a recognized defensive midfielder. 

That contributed to their weak defensive performance in which they allowed 3.1 expected goals and 4.1 post-shot expected goals, per fbref.com. 

Bowen exited Sunday’s match with an injury, though. Without him, West Ham possess very little attacking quality. 

If Bowen returns, it allows the Hammers to exploit a City side overrated in the market. 

Without adjusting for strength of schedule, City owns a +0.38 xGDiff per 90 minutes this season, whereas West Ham owns a -0.39 xGDiff per 90. 

Even if you sample City home matches, it becomes a +0.95 xGDiff per 90. Away from home, West Ham owns a -0.25 xGDiff per 90 minutes. 

While the Hammers have faced a fairly easy road schedule, they stayed within this number on xG at Tottenham and produced a 2-0 road win as big dogs against Newcastle United. 

The additional angle to this handicap is that City play markedly worse offensively without De Bruyne in the lineup. 

It should come as no surprise that City covered at Leicester with De Bruyne in the lineup. In the prior match at home, City didn’t start De Bruyne and failed to cover against Everton. 

This season, the Belgian midfielder has started eight league matches. City is 6-1-1 (W-D-L) in those matches, with five of six wins coming by multiple goals. 

However, Guardiola could sit De Bruyne, who finds himself amidst a contract negotiation. 

If that happens, it’s a good spot to back West Ham in a historically profitable angle. 

Since 2012, 1.5-goal road underdogs off a loss by three or more goals are 21-14 ATS. When the opponent is coming off a win, they’re 12-3 ATS. 

However, if De Bruyne starts for City, the match becomes a pass.