Man City vs Sunderland Prediction, Odds & Match Preview

After a raucous fixture at Craven Cottage, Man City returns home to face Sunderland. 

City took a 5-1 lead on Tuesday against Fulham and ultimately held on for a 5-4 win. Now, Pep Guardiola’s team will try for a seventh straight EPL win at home. 

Sunderland stole points once again at Liverpool on Wednesday. The 1-1 draw marked the third straight Sunderland took points against a Big Six club. 

Check out the Premier League odds and my Man City vs Sunderland prediction. 

Man City vs Sunderland: Premier League Odds

Sunderland vs Man City: Prediction

Based on Manchester City’s attacking success at home and Sunderland’s impending defensive regression, my Man City vs Sunderland prediction is Man City Over 2.5 Goals (-102). 

The defensive competition hasn’t mattered for Man City, which has cleared this benchmark in four of its last five. 

At home, City has scored at least twice in six straight, clearing 2.5 goals in five of those six matches. 

Now they get a Sunderland defense primed for a ton of defensive regression. 

Excluding Wednesday’s match at Anfield, Regis Le Bris’ defense has allowed 13 goals off 17 expected goals, per fbref.com. 

Although the team already traveled to Chelsea, which ranks second in non-penalty xG, the match featured a heavily rotated Chelsea attack. 

Now they’re playing a City attack that easily qualifies as its hardest competition to date. 

It’s also worth remembering that Sunderland surrendered two goals off 2.4 post-shot xG to Bournemouth last weekend. 

That match also saw Bournemouth deny itself a third goal. On a shot that was clearly going in, striker Evanilson helped it home from an offside position. 

That marked Sunderland’s worst defensive performance of the season by post-shot xG allowed. It came against a side that, for the season, trails City by only 0.8 psxG created. 

Even more concerning for Sunderland is City’s extra day between games. 

After possessing the ball for only 32% of the match at Anfield, a back-to-back road spot could further complicate Sunderland’s defensive viability. 

Based on those factors, I predict City clears this benchmark for the third straight match.