- Man City is predicted to be a 1.5-goal home favorite against Leeds United.
- Manchester City has won 13 straight EPL home matches against promoted teams.
- My Man City vs Leeds prediction is Man City Over 2.5 Goals (+110).
Manchester City tries to continue its terrific home form as heavy favorites vs. Leeds United.Â
Pep Guardiola’s side fell 2-1 on Matchday 12 at Newcastle United. Now, the perennial EPL champions go for a sixth straight home win and 14th straight home win over a promoted side.Â
For Leeds, the match marks the newcomers’ second this season against a title threat. Earlier this season, manager Daniel Farke took Leeds to Arsenal and suffered a 5-0 defeat.Â
Check out the Premier League odds and my Man City vs Leeds prediction.Â
Man City vs Leeds: Premier League Odds
Leeds vs Man City: Prediction
Based on Man City’s attacking strength at home and Leeds’ defensive struggles against comparable attacks, my Man City vs Leeds prediction is Man City Over 2.5 Goals (+110).Â
Guardiola’s attack leads all Premier League sides with 12.2 expected goals across six home matches.Â
City has cleared this benchmark in four of its previous five matches at the Etihad. That includes two straight successes against Bournemouth and Liverpool.Â
The positive attacking record extends back to last season. Since the calendar turned to 2025, Manchester City has cleared 2.5 goals nine times in 15 home fixtures.Â
That should create a buy-low spot on City against a poor Leeds defense. This season, Leeds has struggled to defend away from home.Â
Excluding Leeds’ home fixture against Aston Villa on Sunday, Leeds ranks third in expected goals against on its own pitch compared to 17th on the road.Â
It gets worse against competent attacks. Against Arsenal and Brighton, Leeds surrendered eight goals off six xG and 7.3 post-shot xG, per fbref.com.Â
Even Nottingham Forest created 2.5 xG and 3.4 post-shot xG at home against Leeds.Â
If there’s a slight cause for concern, it’s that City has benefited the most this season from opposition goalkeeping.Â
Excluding Matchday 11, City scored 5.2 goals over its post-shot expectation.Â
But Leeds’ goalkeeping situation leaves much to be desired. Entering Sunday’s match against Villa, Leeds surrendered 1.9 goals over its post-shot expectation.Â
Pair those factors with Leeds’ road defensive record, and I predict City clears 2.5 goals on Saturday.Â
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