- Man City is predicted to be a -2.5-goal home favorite against Burnley.
- Burnley has covered the spread in four of its first five league matches.
- My Man City vs Burnley prediction is the Manchester City 1H Moneyline (-185).
Manchester City looks for a second straight home win as heavy favorites against Burnley.Â
City faced a test on Matchday 5 as road underdogs against Arsenal. Pep Guardiola’s side gained an early 1-0 advantage but conceded a late equalizer to draw 1-1.Â
Burnley continued its positive ATS run on Matchday 5 against Nottingham Forest. After conceding inside five minutes, Burnley scored an equalizer to move to 4-1 ATS on the year.Â
Check out the Premier League odds and my Man City vs Burnley prediction.Â
Man City vs Burnley: Premier League Odds
Burnley vs Man City: Prediction
Based on Burnley’s defensive struggles in the first half and City’s strong metrics in the opening 45 minutes, my Man City vs Burnley prediction is the Man City 1H Moneyline (-185).Â
Burnley has struggled to keep teams out away from home. They’ve now conceded at least one first-half goal in each road match this season with opponents dominating the metrics.Â
At Tottenham on Matchday 1, Burnley fell behind 1-0 at halftime. By post-shot expected goals, the Clarets finished the first half with a -0.7 post-shot expected goal differential, per fotmob.com.Â
Then Burnley traveled to Manchester United on Matchday 3. Again, the Clarets fell behind 1-0 at halftime with a -0.62 post-shot xGDiff and -1.4 expected goal differential.Â
On Saturday, Burnley faces a City team that has dominated first halves this season.Â
Save for a loss against Tottenham on Matchday 2, City grabbed a first-half advantage in three of its first four league matches.Â
Based on underlying metrics, City dominated its opponents in those games. Against Wolves, Brighton and Manchester United, City averaged a +1.17 post-shot xGDiff in the first half.Â
None of those three opponents managed to create more than 0.17 post-shot xG in the first half against City.Â
Essentially, that places the onus on City to score once to take the lead at halftime. History tells us that’s a likely outcome with City playing at home.Â
Each of City’s last 25 home matches has seen a first-half goal. Given that trend, bettors essentially need to figure out which team continues the trend.Â
Over those last 25 at home, City scored a first-half goal 22 times for a 88% hit rate. The only failures came against Tottenham twice and Liverpool once.Â
This success continues over a larger sample. Since the start of the 2023 league season, City has scored a first-half goal in 32 of 40 league matches at home for a 80% hit rate.Â
Over the same span, City played six matches at home against promoted teams. Pep Guardiola’s side finished 6-0 SU in those first halves.Â
Pair those trends with City’s first-half starts this season, and I predict the hosts enter halftime with a lead on Saturday.Â
Premier League Match Schedule
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Tottenham | Manchester United | Nov. 8 | 7:30 a.m. | Tottenham Hotspur Stadium |
| Everton | Fulham | Nov. 8 | 10 a.m. | Hill Dickinson Stadium |
| West Ham United | Burnley | Nov. 8 | 10 a.m. | London Stadium |
| Sunderland | Arsenal | Nov. 8 | 12:30 p.m. | Stadium of Light |
| Chelsea | Wolves | Nov. 8 | 3 p.m. | Stamford Bridge |
| Aston Villa | Bournemouth | Nov. 9 | 9 a.m. | Villa Park |
| Brentford | Newcastle United | Nov. 9 | 9 a.m. | GTech Community Stadium |
| Crystal Palace | Brighton & Hove Albion | Nov. 9 | 9 a.m. | Selhurst Park |
| Nottingham Forest | Leeds United | Nov. 9 | 9 a.m. | The City Ground |
| Manchester City | Liverpool | Nov. 9 | 11:30 a.m. | Etihad Stadium |
Premier League ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS% | Home ATS Record | Home ATS% | Road ATS Record | Road ATS% |
| Arsenal | 4-3-3 | 55.0% | 2-2-1 | 50.0% | 2-1-2 | 60.0% |
| Aston Villa | 3-5-2 | 40.0% | 2-2-1 | 50.0% | 1-3-1 | 30.0% |
| Bournemouth | 6-2-2 | 70.0% | 4-0-1 | 90.0% | 2-2-1 | 50.0% |
| Brentford | 5-4-1 | 55.0% | 4-0-1 | 90.0% | 1-4-0 | 20.0% |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 4-6-0 | 40.0% | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 1-4-0 | 20.0% |
| Burnley | 6-2-2 | 70.0% | 4-0-1 | 90.0% | 2-2-1 | 50.0% |
| Chelsea | 5-5-0 | 50.0% | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 3-2-0 | 60.0% |
| Crystal Palace | 6-4-0 | 60.0% | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 4-1-0 | 80.0% |
| Everton | 3-4-3 | 45.0% | 2-2-1 | 50.0% | 1-2-2 | 40.0% |
| Fulham | 5-3-2 | 60.0% | 4-0-1 | 90.0% | 1-3-1 | 30.0% |
| Leeds United | 4-5-1 | 45.0% | 3-1-1 | 70.0% | 1-4-0 | 20.0% |
| Liverpool | 4-5-1 | 45.0% | 3-1-1 | 80.0% | 1-4-0 | 20.0% |
| Manchester City | 6-3-1 | 65.0% | 4-1-0 | 80.0% | 2-2-1 | 50.0% |
| Manchester United | 4-6-0 | 40.0% | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 1-4-0 | 20.0% |
| Newcastle United | 2-6-2 | 30.0% | 1-3-1 | 30.0% | 1-3-1 | 30.0% |
| Nottingham Forest | 3-7-0 | 30.0% | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 1-4-0 | 20.0% |
| Sunderland | 7-2-1 | 75.0% | 4-0-1 | 90.0% | 3-1-1 | 70.0% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 6-4-0 | 60.0% | 1-4-0 | 20.0% | 5-0-0 | 100.0% |
| West Ham United | 3-6-1 | 35.0% | 1-4-0 | 20.0% | 2-2-1 | 50.0% |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 3-7-0 | 30.0% | 1-4-0 | 20.0% | 2-3-0 | 40.0% |
Premier League Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Arsenal | 8-1-1 | 25 | 15 |
| Manchester City | 6-1-3 | 19 | 12 |
| Bournemouth | 5-3-2 | 18 | 3 |
| Liverpool | 6-0-4 | 18 | 4 |
| Sunderland | 5-3-2 | 18 | 4 |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 5-2-3 | 17 | 9 |
| Chelsea | 5-2-3 | 17 | 7 |
| Manchester United | 5-2-3 | 17 | 1 |
| Crystal Palace | 4-4-2 | 16 | 5 |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 4-3-3 | 15 | 2 |
| Aston Villa | 4-3-3 | 15 | -1 |
| Brentford | 4-1-5 | 13 | -1 |
| Newcastle United | 3-3-4 | 12 | -1 |
| Everton | 3-3-4 | 12 | -3 |
| Fulham | 3-2-5 | 11 | -2 |
| Leeds United | 3-2-5 | 11 | -8 |
| Burnley | 3-1-6 | 10 | -7 |
| West Ham United | 2-1-7 | 7 | -11 |
| Nottingham Forest | 1-3-6 | 6 | -12 |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 0-2-8 | 2 | -15 |
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