Liverpool vs. Tottenham Prediction, Odds, Pick | Premier League Match Preview

Before Sunday’s marquee Premier League fixture, bettors can find my Liverpool vs. Tottenham prediction below. 

Both sides enter Sunday’s meeting having dropped points in their last fixture. Spurs lost 2-0 at Chelsea in the midweek, while Liverpool drew 2-2 at West Ham last weekend. 

When these sides last met earlier this season, Tottenham earned a 2-1 home win. However, both goals came with Tottenham playing up a man. 

Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my prediction for Sunday’s match. 

EPL Betting Odds – Liverpool vs. Tottenham

• Liverpool Moneyline: -210
• Tottenham Moneyline: +450
• Draw Moneyline: +425
• Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (-160/+115)

EPL Prediction – Liverpool vs. Tottenham

Tottenham Spread (+1.5, -145)

I don’t love the spot for Tottenham, who is playing their second consecutive road match on short rest. 

However, history suggests Tottenham are live to cover the spread at Anfield. 

Since the 2012-13 season, underdogs at +1.5 or +2 with juice between +150 and -149 are 152-95-17 ATS, assuming two factors:

• The team was an underdog in their previous game
• The opponent was a favorite in their previous game

Even when those teams are playing on between two and four days of rest, they’re still 42-27-3 ATS, including 10-5 ATS since last season. 

There’s another system suggesting a bet on Tottenham. 

Over the same time period, underdogs that closed a dog in their previous game are 191-112-20 ATS (63%), assuming two factors:

• The spread is +1.5, +2, +2.5 or +3
• The opponent’s previous game margin is between +0 and +5

Shrink the sample down to games in which the dog won the previous head-to-head meeting and bettors will find those dogs are 24-9-1 ATS. 

Even if you ignore those trends, Tottenham has proved they can compete with the league’s best this season. 

Although they required some help from Liverpool, it’s worth noting Spurs have stayed within this number in all four games against Manchester City, Arsenal and Liverpool. 

Plus, not since January 2021 have Liverpool covered this number against Tottenham, who just bossed Arsenal at home in terms of the underlying metrics. 

Sample Tottenham’s two road matches against Arsenal and Manchester City, bettors will find they’ve posted a -0.15 post-shot expected goal differential per 90 minutes. 

Spurs have also earned points in both of those matches, so I’ll be surprised if they get blown out on Sunday at Anfield. 

As a result, I’ll buy low on Spurs following a dreadful performance at Chelsea and take them to do no worse than a cover. 

Liverpool Form 

April 27 at West Ham: 2-2, D

April 24 at Everton: 0-2, L

April 21 at Fulham: 3-1, W

April 18 at Atalanta: 1-0, W (Europa League)

April 14 vs. Crystal Palace: 0-1, L

Tottenham Form

May 2 at Chelsea: 0-2, L

April 28 vs. Arsenal: 2-3, L

April 13 at Newcastle: 0-4, L

April 7 vs. Nottingham Forest: 3-1, W

April 2 at West Ham United: 1-1, D

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