Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest Prediction, Odds & Match Preview

Liverpool will try to bounce back after an international break as home favorites to Nottingham Forest. 

Arne Slot’s side suffered a 3-0 blowout defeat at Manchester City before the break. After beginning the year with five straight wins, Liverpool is 1-0-5 (W-D-L) in the last six. 

Forest has enjoyed a recent run of form. New manager Sean Dyche has earned four points from six in the last two matches, including a 3-1 win over Leeds United. 

Check out the Premier League odds and my Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest prediction. 

Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest: Premier League Odds

Nottingham Forest vs Liverpool: Prediction

Based on Nottingham Forest’s road tendencies and Liverpool’s superior attacking metrics late, my Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest prediction is Second Half – Highest Scoring Half (-102). 

Away from home, Forest has generally played not to lose. Rarely does the attack produce meaningful metrics early, as the defense tries to limit high-quality chances. 

Forest has contributed a road first-half tally once this season. That came against Burnley, the worst defense in the Premier League. 

But the Tricky Trees have generally kept firm in defense. 

Although the defense has allowed five first-half goals away from home, underlying metrics suggest positive regression is on the way. 

Those five tallies have come against 3.4 expected goals. Across all five first halves, Forest has surrendered only two attempts over 0.3 xG and one over 0.5 xG, per fbref.com. 

A defensive-first approach should come naturally at Liverpool. 

This season, Slot’s attack has performed better in the second half. Through 11 matches, Liverpool generated 8.3 1H xG vs. 11.5 2H xG. 

Plus, the Forest defense generally softens as the match progresses. Through 11 matches, Forest has surrendered 12.8 2H xG vs. 6.35 in the first half. 

While the Liverpool defense offers some concern, two factors mitigate that concern. 

First, seven of Liverpool’s 11 fixtures have come against sides ninth or better in expected goals. 

Forest ranks 10th, but the attack has played three straight against one of the nine-worst defenses. Additionally, the attack created 71% of its xG total after halftime. 

Pair those statistical trends with the extended rest for both teams, and I predict a slower start at Anfield.