Liverpool vs Brighton Prediction, Odds & Match Preview

Liverpool caps off a three-game matchweek with a home fixture against Brighton. 

The title holders’ current form leaves much to be desired. The Reds sit 10th in the current table thanks to two straight draws against Sunderland and Leeds United. 

Brighton has dropped points in two straight after a four-match unbeaten run. Last season, the Seagulls split the head-to-head series against Liverpool. 

Check out the Premier League odds and my Liverpool vs Brighton prediction. 

Liverpool vs Brighton: Premier League Odds

Brighton vs Liverpool: Prediction

Based on Liverpool’s troubling defensive record and Brighton’s potential injury returnees, my Liverpool vs Brighton prediction is the Brighton Moneyline (+340). 

Above all else, Liverpool’s price is too high given its current form. The defense has shipped at least three goals in four of their previous six meetings. 

That includes three against Leeds United and Nottingham Forest. Both of those attacks have posted significantly inferior attacking metrics than Brighton. 

Even in the Champions League, Liverpool allowed four at home to PSV Eindhoven. 

On short rest, Liverpool’s defensive troubles could return. Brighton ranks seventh in non-penalty expected goals per 90 and third in post-shot xG per 90, per fbref.com. 

The attack could also return Solly March and Kaoru Mitoma on Saturday, further bolstering the attack. 

Those returnees could help Brighton see some positive regression. Away from home, Brighton owns a -1 goal differential compared to a +1.2 expected goal differential. 

Bettors have also seen Brighton succeed as an underdog this season. 

At home, the attack generated 3.1 post-shot xG against Manchester City, coming from behind to win 2-1. Brighton has also created at least 1.6 post-shot xG in three of its last four. 

This season, Liverpool owns a 1-1-6 (W-D-L) record when the defense surrenders at least one post-shot xG. 

That’s an incredibly narrow margin to overcome after a trip to Italy on Tuesday. Plus, history suggests Brighton are a live underdog to win outright. 

Since 2012, underdogs between +240 and +410 that closed a market favorite in their last fixture are 48-51, assuming three factors:

• The favorite’s previous game margin falls between -2 and +1
• The underdog’s previous game margin is -1 or 0
• The favorite’s win percentage falls between 34% and 66% 

Given those factors, Brighton offers a decent flier on the moneyline at Anfield.