Leeds vs Liverpool Prediction, Odds & Match Preview

Liverpool will try to end a bad run of road form as short favorites against Leeds United. 

Leeds blew out Chelsea 3-1 as home underdogs on Wednesday. It marked only the fourth league win for Daniel Farke’s squad and its first win since October 24. 

Liverpool entered Wednesday’s match against Sunderland a heavy home favorite. The hosts fell behind 1-0 to the newcomers and could only muster a point in a 1-1 draw. 

Check out the Premier League odds and my Leeds vs Liverpool prediction. 

Leeds vs Liverpool: Premier League Odds

Liverpool vs Leeds: Prediction

Based on Liverpool’s potential offensive improvement and their difficult defensive schedule, my Liverpool vs Leeds prediction is Liverpool Over 1.5 Goals (-145). 

I find the Liverpool attack wildly interesting. The team ranks sixth in expected goals per 90 minutes and fourth in non-penalty expected goals per 90, per fbref.com. 

But the unit drops to 11th in post-shot expected goals, which measures the quality of shots on target. 

However, I’m not sure that ranking is reflective of the attack’s true quality. 

Including Wednesday’s match at Sunderland, Liverpool has played eight of 13 against the 10 best defenses by post-shot expected goals allowed. 

If there’s cause for concern, it’s that the attack has struggled against bad defenses. Liverpool managed only a goal at Burnley and needed a red card at West Ham to score a second. 

But this is also an attack that created 1.9 xG at Chelsea and 2.2 at Brentford. Plus, Liverpool has scored 18 goals off 20 expected tallies, excluding its midweek match. 

Leeds ranks 18th in expected goals allowed, but has conceded 25 times off 19 expected goals. At home: seven goals allowed vs 4.8 expected goals. 

But the defense had yet to face a home match against a top-six road expected goals outfit. That changed on Wednesday as Leeds surrendered only one goal to Chelsea. 

Away from home, Leeds played two matches against teams creating over 1.4 npxG per 90. They allowed three tallies to Man City and five to Arsenal. 

Both of those attacks generated over 2.5 expected goals and 2.8 post-shot expected goals. 

Given those performances, it’s difficult to see how Leeds improves at home against similar attacks. Plus, Leeds has allowed at least one goal in 11 straight/10 of its last 11. 

Accordingly, I predict Liverpool notches at least two tallies on short rest.