Leeds vs Chelsea Prediction, Odds & Match Preview

After a strong home result against Arsenal, Chelsea travels on short rest to face Leeds. 

Manager Enzo Maresca’s Chelsea squad overcame an early red card to draw 1-1 against the league leaders. The result leaves Chelsea third in the EPL table, six points adrift of the lead. 

Leeds performed admirably against Manchester City, covering the spread in a 3-2 defeat. However, manager Daniel Farke’s side has lost four straight and six of seven. 

Check out the Premier League odds and my Leeds vs Chelsea prediction. 

Leeds vs Chelsea: Premier League Odds

Chelsea vs Leeds: Prediction

Based on Chelsea’s potential attacking improvement and Leeds’ offensive metrics against Man City, my Leeds vs Chelsea prediction is the Total Over 2.5 Goals (-125). 

By post-shot expected goals, Chelsea owns the best attack in the Premier League. Excluding Sunday’s match against Arsenal, the Blues created 26.9 psxG in their first 12 matches. 

However, the attack has since run unlucky. In the last x matches, opposing goalkeepers have kept out 3.9 goals against Chelsea, the largest underperformance in the Premier League. 

Positive regression could arrive against a bad Leeds defense. This season, Farke’s defense has largely faced bad offensive competition. 

Only four times this season has Leeds played an attack sixth or better in post-shot xG. All four attacks managed two or more goals, with three clearing 2.5 goals on their own. 

On average, those attacks – Arsenal, Man City, Bournemouth and Brighton – created 2.25 expected goals and 2.83 post-shot xG. 

But what’s simultaneously encouraging is that Leeds posted strong attacking metrics, save for a trip to Arsenal. 

Against Bournemouth, City and Brighton, Leeds created 1.27 xG and 1.43 post-shot xG. Additionally, Farke’s attack has failed to score only once at Elland Road this season. 

History also suggests goals could flow at Elland Road. Since 2012, matches featuring a home dog and a 2.5-goal total are 64-30 to the over, assuming three factors:

• The away team’s average number of goals falls between 1.2 and 1.9
• The home team’s average number of goals allowed falls between 1.7 and 1.9
• The home moneyline falls between +200 and +575

As a result, I predict a high-scoring contest on Wednesday.