- Ipswich Town is predicted to be a +0.5-goal home underdog against Nottingham Forest.
- Nottingham Forest has won each of its last nine EPL matches as a favorite.
- My Ipswich Town vs. Nottingham Forest prediction is the Forest moneyline.
Off a strong win against Manchester City, Nottingham Forest travel to Ipswich Town seeking a second straight victory.Â
Nuno Espirito Santo’s side captured a 1-0 win over the defending champions, ending a three-match winless run in the league. As it stands, Forest sits third in the league.
Ipswich Town fell 1-0 as road underdogs to Crystal Palace to remain in the relegation zone. The result flattered Ipswich, though, as the Tractor Boys posted a -1.7 expected differential.Â
Check out the Premier League odds and my Ipswich Town vs. Nottingham Forest prediction.Â
Ipswich Town vs. Nottingham Forest: Premier League Odds
Ipswich Town vs. Nottingham Forest Prediction
Based on Nottingham Forest’s strong record as a favorite and their outstanding defense, my Ipswich Town vs. Nottingham Forest prediction is the Forest Moneyline (+115).Â
Forest offer a strong profile as a market favorite thanks to their brilliant defensive record.Â
Santo’s side ranks fourth in expected goals against and seventh in post-shot expected goals allowed, per fbref.com.Â
Because of that defensive record, Forest has excelled against teams possessing the league’s worst attacks.Â
Seven EPL sides have created under 33 post-shot expected goals this season. Forest has played nine games against those teams with an 8-1-0 (W-D-L) record.Â
Across all nine matches, Forest recorded a +9.8 post-shot expected goal differential.Â
In two previous trips to promoted teams, Forest are 2-0-0 with a +3 xGDiff and +2.3 post-shot xGDiff.Â
Conversely, Ipswich has previously struggled against the league’s best defenses.Â
Against teams ninth or better in post-shot expected goals allowed, Ipswich Town recorded a 1-3-9 (W-D-L) record with all four results undeserved based on expected goals.Â
Finally, history likes this spot to back Nottingham Forest.Â
Since 2012, teams priced between -130 and +246 are 115-105 SU, assuming three additional factors:
- The team closed a home underdog in their previous game
- The underdog’s previous game margin is -2 or -1
- The team’s margin in the last head-to-head meeting is +0 or +1
When that spot occurs in fixture 28 onward, such teams are 43-35 SU.Â
As a result, I like Forest to continue their positive run as favorites and produce a second straight win on Saturday.Â
Premier League Match Schedule
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Tottenham | Manchester United | Nov. 8 | 7:30 a.m. | Tottenham Hotspur Stadium |
| Everton | Fulham | Nov. 8 | 10 a.m. | Hill Dickinson Stadium |
| West Ham United | Burnley | Nov. 8 | 10 a.m. | London Stadium |
| Sunderland | Arsenal | Nov. 8 | 12:30 p.m. | Stadium of Light |
| Chelsea | Wolves | Nov. 8 | 3 p.m. | Stamford Bridge |
| Aston Villa | Bournemouth | Nov. 9 | 9 a.m. | Villa Park |
| Brentford | Newcastle United | Nov. 9 | 9 a.m. | GTech Community Stadium |
| Crystal Palace | Brighton & Hove Albion | Nov. 9 | 9 a.m. | Selhurst Park |
| Nottingham Forest | Leeds United | Nov. 9 | 9 a.m. | The City Ground |
| Manchester City | Liverpool | Nov. 9 | 11:30 a.m. | Etihad Stadium |
Premier League ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS% | Home ATS Record | Home ATS% | Road ATS Record | Road ATS% |
| Arsenal | 4-3-3 | 55.0% | 2-2-1 | 50.0% | 2-1-2 | 60.0% |
| Aston Villa | 3-5-2 | 40.0% | 2-2-1 | 50.0% | 1-3-1 | 30.0% |
| Bournemouth | 6-2-2 | 70.0% | 4-0-1 | 90.0% | 2-2-1 | 50.0% |
| Brentford | 5-4-1 | 55.0% | 4-0-1 | 90.0% | 1-4-0 | 20.0% |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 4-6-0 | 40.0% | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 1-4-0 | 20.0% |
| Burnley | 6-2-2 | 70.0% | 4-0-1 | 90.0% | 2-2-1 | 50.0% |
| Chelsea | 5-5-0 | 50.0% | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 3-2-0 | 60.0% |
| Crystal Palace | 6-4-0 | 60.0% | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 4-1-0 | 80.0% |
| Everton | 3-4-3 | 45.0% | 2-2-1 | 50.0% | 1-2-2 | 40.0% |
| Fulham | 5-3-2 | 60.0% | 4-0-1 | 90.0% | 1-3-1 | 30.0% |
| Leeds United | 4-5-1 | 45.0% | 3-1-1 | 70.0% | 1-4-0 | 20.0% |
| Liverpool | 4-5-1 | 45.0% | 3-1-1 | 80.0% | 1-4-0 | 20.0% |
| Manchester City | 6-3-1 | 65.0% | 4-1-0 | 80.0% | 2-2-1 | 50.0% |
| Manchester United | 4-6-0 | 40.0% | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 1-4-0 | 20.0% |
| Newcastle United | 2-6-2 | 30.0% | 1-3-1 | 30.0% | 1-3-1 | 30.0% |
| Nottingham Forest | 3-7-0 | 30.0% | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 1-4-0 | 20.0% |
| Sunderland | 7-2-1 | 75.0% | 4-0-1 | 90.0% | 3-1-1 | 70.0% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 6-4-0 | 60.0% | 1-4-0 | 20.0% | 5-0-0 | 100.0% |
| West Ham United | 3-6-1 | 35.0% | 1-4-0 | 20.0% | 2-2-1 | 50.0% |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 3-7-0 | 30.0% | 1-4-0 | 20.0% | 2-3-0 | 40.0% |
Premier League Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Arsenal | 8-1-1 | 25 | 15 |
| Manchester City | 6-1-3 | 19 | 12 |
| Bournemouth | 5-3-2 | 18 | 3 |
| Liverpool | 6-0-4 | 18 | 4 |
| Sunderland | 5-3-2 | 18 | 4 |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 5-2-3 | 17 | 9 |
| Chelsea | 5-2-3 | 17 | 7 |
| Manchester United | 5-2-3 | 17 | 1 |
| Crystal Palace | 4-4-2 | 16 | 5 |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 4-3-3 | 15 | 2 |
| Aston Villa | 4-3-3 | 15 | -1 |
| Brentford | 4-1-5 | 13 | -1 |
| Newcastle United | 3-3-4 | 12 | -1 |
| Everton | 3-3-4 | 12 | -3 |
| Fulham | 3-2-5 | 11 | -2 |
| Leeds United | 3-2-5 | 11 | -8 |
| Burnley | 3-1-6 | 10 | -7 |
| West Ham United | 2-1-7 | 7 | -11 |
| Nottingham Forest | 1-3-6 | 6 | -12 |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 0-2-8 | 2 | -15 |
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