Crystal Palace vs Man City Prediction, Odds & Match Preview

Manchester City goes for a fourth straight EPL win as road favorites to Crystal Palace. 

City dispatched Sunderland 3-0 on Sunday, staying second in the league table. It marked the third straight game in which Pep Guardiola’s attack notched at least three goals. 

For Palace, Sunday’s match offers a chance to extend a positive run of form against Man City. Palace has taken points in three straight against City, including an FA Cup title win. 

Check out the Premier League odds and my Crystal Palace vs Man City prediction. 

Crystal Palace vs Man City: Premier League Odds

• Manchester City Moneyline: -115
• Draw Moneyline: +275
• Crystal Palace Moneyline: +290
• Over/Under: 2.5 Goals (-145/+105)
• Both Teams to Score: “Yes” (-160), “No” (+110)

Man City vs Crystal Palace: Prediction

Based on Man City’s inconsistent defensive record and Crystal Palace’s successful attacking metrics, my Crystal Palace vs Man City prediction is Crystal Palace Over 1.5 Goals (+180). 

Above all else, the price on Palace is too high. 

City has kept only two road clean sheets this season. The first came at Wolves, which bottoms out virtually every EPL attacking metric. 

The second came at Brentford with Ballon D’Or winner Rodri featuring in the Starting XI. That creates a strong buy-low opportunity after Saturday’s fixture against Sunderland. 

Before that match, City allowed four straight opponents to clear 1.5 goals. Newcastle, Bayer Leverkusen, Leeds United and Fulham combined to average 1.85 post-shot xG per 90. 

At minimum, Palace owns a better attack than Leeds and Fulham. For the season, Palace ranks fifth in expected goals and eighth in post-shot xG. 

By post-shot xG, Leeds and Fulham rank 12th and 15th, respectively. Plus, Palace has underperformed its post-shot xG tally by three goals, excluding Matchday 15. 

Oliver Glasner’s squad also put together two strong attacking performances against City last year. The Eagles cleared 1.5 goals in both league meetings, averaging 1.71 post-shot xG. 

In fact, Palace has cleared this benchmark in four straight EPL meetings with City. The attack has also cleared at least once in five straight. 

If there’s a cause for concern, it’s the fact that Palace plays on short rest. However, City has recorded worse defensive metrics with an advantage. 

Per understat.com, Pep Guardiola’s defense is allowing over 1.1 xG per 90 with any kind of lead. 

Pair those trends with the price, and I predict Palace clears this benchmark against City.