Chelsea vs. Nottingham Forest Prediction, Odds: EPL Betting

Chelsea aim for their fourth straight league win on Sunday as they prepare to host Nottingham Forest. 

The Blues fell behind 1-0 to Brighton on Matchday 4 but used a quartet of first-half goals from Cole Palmer to win 4-2 against the Seagulls. 

Forest, meanwhile, fell 1-0 as home favorites to Fulham. After beating Liverpool on Matchday 3, Forest has only one point in their last two games. 

Here’s a look at the Premier League odds and my Chelsea vs. Nottingham Forest prediction. 

Premier League Odds: Chelsea vs. Nottingham Forest

• Chelsea Moneyline: -210
• Nottingham Forest Moneyline: +525
• Draw Moneyline: +360
• Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (+130/-185)
• Both Teams to Score: Yes (-145), No (+105)

Premier League Betting: Chelsea vs. Nottingham Forest Prediction

My Chelsea vs. Nottingham Forest prediction is Chelsea to Win & Both Teams to Score (+175). 

Chelsea thoroughly dominated Nottingham Forest in the last head-to-head meeting. 

The match finished 3-2 in Chelsea’s favor, but the Blues won the post-shot expected goals battle 2.25-1, per fotmob.com. 

Plus, Chelsea is a massive positive regression candidate based on their performances at Stamford Bridge. 

Enzo Maresca’s side has a +0 goal differential at home compared to a +5.1 expected goal differential, per fbref.com. 

History also suggests Chelsea is primed to earn all three points. 

Since 2012, home favorites in games 6-35 priced between -235 and -110 are 70% SU, assuming two factors:

• The underdog closed a favorite in their last match
• The previous head-to-head result fell between -1 and +1

When the underdogs are coming off a loss, the favorites improve to 29-10 SU (74.3%). 

All that said, I don’t trust the Chelsea defense to keep a clean sheet. 

Since Forest joined the English top flight, they’ve scored at least once in all four matches against Chelsea. 

Plus, Nuno Espirito Santo’s side returns Morgan Gibbs-White from suspension. 

Since last season, the Tricky Trees have played 40 games with Gibbs-White in the Starting XI. In those matches, they’ve scored at least once in 31 fixtures, a 78% hit rate. 

Based on those outputs, I’ll back the visitors to find the scoresheet in what should prove a losing effort. 

Chelsea Record, Last 5 Matches

• Sept. 28 vs. Brighton:4-2, W
• Sept. 24 vs. Barrow: 5-0, W (EFL Cup)
• Sept. 21 at West Ham: 3-0, W
• Sept. 14 at Bournemouth: 1-0, W
• Sept. 1 vs. Crystal Palace: 1-1, D

Nottingham Forest Record, Last 5 Matches

• Sept. 28 vs. Fulham: 0-1, L
• Sept. 22 at Brighton; 2-2, D
• Sept. 14 at Liverpool: 1-0, W
• Aug. 31 vs. Wolves: 1-1, D
• Aug. 28 vs. Newcastle: 1-1, D (EFL Cup, Newcastle Advance)