Chelsea vs Arsenal Prediction, Odds & Match Preview

The marquee fixture for Matchday 13 pits Chelsea against Arsenal at Stamford Bridge. 

Chelsea is currently enjoying a strong run of form. The Blues captured a 2-0 win over Burnley out of the international break and have taken all three points in three straight. 

Arsenal captured a 4-1 win on Sunday against rivals Tottenham, extending its lead atop the Premier League. Last season, Mikel Arteta’s side took four points out of a possible six against Chelsea. 

Check out the Premier League odds and my Chelsea vs Arsenal prediction. 

Chelsea vs Arsenal: Premier League Odds

Arsenal vs Chelsea: Prediction

Based on Chelsea’s easy schedule to date and the team’s troubling record defending set pieces, my Chelsea vs Arsenal prediction is the Arsenal Moneyline (+120). 

The glaring advantage for Arteta’s side comes through set pieces. 

Arsenal leads the Premier League in expected goals generated from set pieces. Per Opta, 37% of Arsenal’s xG output this season comes from set-piece situations. 

Chelsea struggles in the corresponding defensive category. Only Burnley has surrendered more expected goals when defending set-piece situations. 

Of highest concern – 44% of Chelsea’s xG allowance defensively has come from set pieces. 

Chelsea has already played the teams ranked second and third in xG from set pieces. Both resulted in draws, with Chelsea allowing one opponent (Brentford) to clear two post-shot xG. 

I find another glaring concern with Chelsea. This season, Enzo Maresca’s team has yet to play decent opposition. 

Excluding Matchday 12, Chelsea owns a +0.63 xGDiff per 90 minutes. However, its 11 opponents carry a -0.05 xGDiff per 90 average. 

That figure rises if you include a trip to Burnley. By xGDiff, Arsenal offers the toughest test for Chelsea all season. 

Even more concerning is the matchup for Chelsea’s attack. Only twice this season has Chelsea faced a top-five defense by non-penalty xGA (Arsenal ranks first). 

Plus, Arsenal dominated Chelsea in the previous head-to-head meeting. At Arsenal, Arteta led the hosts to a 1-0 victory while limiting Chelsea to zero big scoring chances. 

The teams shared points in the last fixture at Stamford Bridge. However, Arsenal captured a +0.5 post-shot xGDiff edge. 

Based on Arsenal’s attacking improvements this season, I predict the visitors will take all three points on Sunday.