- Burnley is predicted to be a -0.5-goal home favorite against Sunderland.
- Sunderland earned points in both head-to-head meetings against Burnley last year.
- My Burnley vs Sunderland prediction is the Sunderland Moneyline (+220).
Two promoted teams meet on Saturday at Turf Moor, with Burnley hosting Sunderland.Â
Matchday 1 proved a radically different experience for these teams. Burnley, despite late market support, fell 3-0 as road underdogs to Tottenham.Â
Sunderland, meanwhile, throttled West Ham United 3-0. The EPL newcomers produced a margin bested by only Manchester City on Matchday 1.Â
Check out the Premier League odds and my Burnley vs Sunderland prediction.Â
Burnley vs Sunderland: Premier League Odds
Sunderland vs Burnley: Prediction
Based on Sunderland’s success against Burnley in the Championship and the market disrespect of the visitors, my Burnley vs Sunderland prediction is the Sunderland Moneyline (+220).Â
In what world should Sunderland close a market underdog to Burnley after its Matchday 1 result?Â
On paper, this match could prove a trap. Bettors are buying high on Sunderland off a massive performance, while Burnley finds itself in a natural buy-low spot.Â
What keeps me away from that angle is the market perception of these teams. If Sunderland were a road favorite here, I would at least consider taking Burnley to cover.Â
But the fact Sunderland is an underdog completely erases that consideration.Â
Even if you discount that angle, Sunderland owned Burnley in the English second tier last season.Â
Regis Le Bris’s side finished 1-1-0 (W-D-L) in two meetings with the Clarets.Â
In the last meeting – a trip to Turf Moor – Sunderland won the xG battle 2.85-0.7 and the post-shot xG battle 1.6-0.45, per fotmob.com.Â
Even if you remove Sunderland’s penalty: 1.3-0.7 on xG, 0.8-0.45 on post-shot xG.Â
History also suggests Sunderland occupy a buy spot for this match.Â
Early in the season, short dogs have performed well against previous road underdogs.Â
Since 2012, half-goal road dogs in fixtures 2-18 are 96-51 ATS, assuming two factors:
- The underdog closed as an underdog in its last match
- The favorite closed as a road underdog in its last match
When those favorites lost by two or more goals in the previous match: 27-8 ATS, including 25-6 when the loss came by two or three goals.Â
That angle suggests that, at minimum, the worst Sunderland does here in a draw. However, a slight variation of the system suggests it wins outright.Â
Over the same span, road dogs priced at +0.5 are 27-57 SU (32.1%), assuming two factors:
- Both teams closed as underdogs in their previous matches
- The favorite’s previous game margin is -2 or -3
Premier League Match Schedule This Weekend
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Tottenham | Manchester United | Nov. 8 | 7:30 a.m. | Tottenham Hotspur Stadium |
| Everton | Fulham | Nov. 8 | 10 a.m. | Hill Dickinson Stadium |
| West Ham United | Burnley | Nov. 8 | 10 a.m. | London Stadium |
| Sunderland | Arsenal | Nov. 8 | 12:30 p.m. | Stadium of Light |
| Chelsea | Wolves | Nov. 8 | 3 p.m. | Stamford Bridge |
| Aston Villa | Bournemouth | Nov. 9 | 9 a.m. | Villa Park |
| Brentford | Newcastle United | Nov. 9 | 9 a.m. | GTech Community Stadium |
| Crystal Palace | Brighton & Hove Albion | Nov. 9 | 9 a.m. | Selhurst Park |
| Nottingham Forest | Leeds United | Nov. 9 | 9 a.m. | The City Ground |
| Manchester City | Liverpool | Nov. 9 | 11:30 a.m. | Etihad Stadium |
Premier League ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS% | Home ATS Record | Home ATS% | Road ATS Record | Road ATS% |
| Arsenal | 4-3-3 | 55.0% | 2-2-1 | 50.0% | 2-1-2 | 60.0% |
| Aston Villa | 3-5-2 | 40.0% | 2-2-1 | 50.0% | 1-3-1 | 30.0% |
| Bournemouth | 6-2-2 | 70.0% | 4-0-1 | 90.0% | 2-2-1 | 50.0% |
| Brentford | 5-4-1 | 55.0% | 4-0-1 | 90.0% | 1-4-0 | 20.0% |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 4-6-0 | 40.0% | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 1-4-0 | 20.0% |
| Burnley | 6-2-2 | 70.0% | 4-0-1 | 90.0% | 2-2-1 | 50.0% |
| Chelsea | 5-5-0 | 50.0% | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 3-2-0 | 60.0% |
| Crystal Palace | 6-4-0 | 60.0% | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 4-1-0 | 80.0% |
| Everton | 3-4-3 | 45.0% | 2-2-1 | 50.0% | 1-2-2 | 40.0% |
| Fulham | 5-3-2 | 60.0% | 4-0-1 | 90.0% | 1-3-1 | 30.0% |
| Leeds United | 4-5-1 | 45.0% | 3-1-1 | 70.0% | 1-4-0 | 20.0% |
| Liverpool | 4-5-1 | 45.0% | 3-1-1 | 80.0% | 1-4-0 | 20.0% |
| Manchester City | 6-3-1 | 65.0% | 4-1-0 | 80.0% | 2-2-1 | 50.0% |
| Manchester United | 4-6-0 | 40.0% | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 1-4-0 | 20.0% |
| Newcastle United | 2-6-2 | 30.0% | 1-3-1 | 30.0% | 1-3-1 | 30.0% |
| Nottingham Forest | 3-7-0 | 30.0% | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 1-4-0 | 20.0% |
| Sunderland | 7-2-1 | 75.0% | 4-0-1 | 90.0% | 3-1-1 | 70.0% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 6-4-0 | 60.0% | 1-4-0 | 20.0% | 5-0-0 | 100.0% |
| West Ham United | 3-6-1 | 35.0% | 1-4-0 | 20.0% | 2-2-1 | 50.0% |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 3-7-0 | 30.0% | 1-4-0 | 20.0% | 2-3-0 | 40.0% |
Premier League Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Arsenal | 8-1-1 | 25 | 15 |
| Manchester City | 6-1-3 | 19 | 12 |
| Bournemouth | 5-3-2 | 18 | 3 |
| Liverpool | 6-0-4 | 18 | 4 |
| Sunderland | 5-3-2 | 18 | 4 |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 5-2-3 | 17 | 9 |
| Chelsea | 5-2-3 | 17 | 7 |
| Manchester United | 5-2-3 | 17 | 1 |
| Crystal Palace | 4-4-2 | 16 | 5 |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 4-3-3 | 15 | 2 |
| Aston Villa | 4-3-3 | 15 | -1 |
| Brentford | 4-1-5 | 13 | -1 |
| Newcastle United | 3-3-4 | 12 | -1 |
| Everton | 3-3-4 | 12 | -3 |
| Fulham | 3-2-5 | 11 | -2 |
| Leeds United | 3-2-5 | 11 | -8 |
| Burnley | 3-1-6 | 10 | -7 |
| West Ham United | 2-1-7 | 7 | -11 |
| Nottingham Forest | 1-3-6 | 6 | -12 |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 0-2-8 | 2 | -15 |
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