Burnley vs Fulham Prediction, Odds & Match Preview

Burnley will try to end a four-match home winless streak on Saturday against Fulham. 

Scott Parker’s side has lost six straight Premier League fixtures. Burnley, which currently sits on 10 points, is ahead of only Wolves in the current table. 

Fulham has lost two straight and three of its previous five league fixtures. So far this season, Marco Silva’s side has taken points in only two road fixtures. 

Check out the Premier League odds and my Burnley vs Fulham prediction. 

Burnley vs Fulham: Premier League Odds

Fulham vs Burnley: Prediction

Based on Fulham’s defensive success against bad attacks and recent attacking form, my Burnley vs Fulham prediction is the Fulham Moneyline (-110). 

Fulham’s poor results this season have come when the defense fails to show up. Silva’s team owns a 0-0-7 (W-D-L) record when allowing two or more tallies. Otherwise: 5-2-1. 

By all accounts, Burnley’s attack lacks the firepower to overcome Fulham. Parker’s attack ranks 20th in expected goals and 18th in post-shot xG, per fbref.com. 

This season, Fulham has cruised against the league’s worst attacks. 

Saturday marks the Irons’ fourth match against a bottom-five xG per 90 attack. Fulham is 3-0-0 (W-D-L) in the other three, claiming wins over Tottenham, Wolves and Sunderland. 

In those fixtures, Fulham surrendered only 1.3 total xG. Across all three matches, Fulham recorded a +2.5 xGDiff and a +3.4 post-shot xGDiff. 

Plus, the attack has begun to shine since Silva moved Alex Iwobi into the number eight role. 

Since October 25, Fulham has averaged 1.47 post-shot xG per 90 in seven fixtures. In their first eight matches of the season, the attack accumulated only 0.73 post-shot xG per 90. 

Now it faces a Burnley defense that bottoms out in expected-goals and post-shot xG. It marks only the third time all year that Fulham has played a bottom-five psxG per 90 defense. 

Lastly, a historical trend suggests Fulham take all three points on Saturday. Since 2012, favorites between -140 and +108 off a loss as favorites are 44-11, assuming two factors:

• The underdog closed as an underdog in its last match
• The favorite’s head-to-head margin in the last meeting falls between +0 and +2

When those underdogs are also coming off a loss, the favorites improve to 32-1 SU. Based on those factors, I predict Fulham will claim all three points.