Brighton vs Brentford Prediction, Odds & Match Preview

Brighton will return from the international break as a short home favorite against Brentford. 

Before the break, Fabian Huerzler’s side drew 0-0 against Crystal Palace. The result dropped Brighton to 11th in the league table, three points outside the Champions League places. 

Brentford used a 3-1 win over Newcastle to reach 12th in the league. Now, Keith Andrews’ team will try to end a 1-0-4 (W-D-L) run away from home against the Seagulls. 

Check out the Premier League odds and my Brighton vs Brentford prediction. 

Brighton vs Brentford: Premier League Odds

Brentford vs Brighton: Prediction

Based on Brighton’s potential positive regression and their strong attacking record at home, my Brighton vs Brentford prediction is Brighton Over 1.5 Goals (-120).

Through 11 matches, Brighton qualify as one of the best attacks in the league. The Seagulls rank seventh in expected goals and second in post-shot expected goals. 

By the latter metric, the Seagulls could see some positive regression out of the break. Huerzler’s side has scored 17 goals off 19.5 post-shot xG, per fbref.com. 

That +2.5-goal underperformance is the third-largest in the league through 11 matches. Additionally, the attack has performed better at home, notching at least 1.3 psxG in four straight. 

Brighton has cleared this benchmark in four straight at the Amex and scored at least once in all five home league matches. 

Meanwhile, Brentford has struggled to defend away from home. The lone clean sheet away from home came at West Ham – one of the worst attacks in the league. 

In four other league trips, Brentford allowed all four to clear 1.5 goals. Brentford also suffers from poor keeping as they’ve allowed 2.4 goals over post-shot expected. 

When these sides met last, Brighton performed well in attack. The Seagulls scored twice as a road underdog in London, including once while down a man. 

Across the entire fixture, Brighton created 1.2 post-shot xG at Brentford and 1.4 xG, per fotmob.com. 

One last factor to note is the potential return of Kaoru Mitoma for Brighton. This season, Brighton’s attack has excelled with the Japan international. 

In five matches, Brighton cleared this benchmark three times. Dating back to last season, Brighton succeeded against this benchmark in 25 of 41 matches with Mitoma appearing. 

Given those factors, I predict Brighton’s attack shines on the South Coast.