- Aston Villa is a -0.5-goal favorite against Brighton.
- Villa thrashed Brighton 6-1 earlier this season at Villa Park.
- The case for fading a Brighton team with little motivation.
Aston Villa, looking to put a stranglehold on a Champions League position, travel on Sunday to face Brighton.Â
Villa enters this match in decent form. They’re unbeaten in four straight league games but dropped points by blowing a 2-0 lead last weekend against Chelsea.Â
As for Brighton, they look like a team playing with minimal motivation. The Seagulls have dropped two straight games by 3+ goals and last won a league game on March 10.Â
Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my pick for Sunday’s fixture.Â
EPL Betting Odds – Aston Villa vs. Brighton
- Aston Villa Moneyline: +130
- Brighton Moneyline: +175
- Draw Moneyline: +280
- Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (+110/-150)
EPL Prediction – Aston Villa vs. Brighton
Aston Villa Draw, No Bet (-145)
Brighton look like they’ve quit this season and history suggests the best they can do is a draw.Â
Since the 2012-13 season, underdogs that have allowed three or more goals in two straight games are 31-138 SU, assuming they closed an underdog in their previous game.Â
Even when those teams play at home, they’re only 13-63 SU against the three-way moneyline.Â
Additionally, Brighton face major personnel concerns for Sunday’s match.Â
In addition to the injuries that have plagued their attack for months – Solly March, Evan Ferguson and Kaoru Mitoma – they face two key defensive absences on Sunday.Â
Both Pervis Estupinan and Jan Paul van Hecke are out for Sunday’s meeting against a Villa side that has dominated them historically.Â
Villa have avoided defeat in seven straight league meetings against Brighton and posted a +2.1 post-shot expected goal differential at Villa Park.Â
Although Brighton have a rest edge for Sunday’s match, they’ve won the expected goals battle only once in their previous eight games.Â
Plus, Villa have done quite well as a favorite this season.Â
They’re 16-9 SU in such spots – including 6-3 away from home – and have dropped all three points only five times, including once on the road.Â
With manager Unai Emery’s side playing with greater motivation, take them to do no worse than a draw on Sunday away from home.Â
Aston Villa FormÂ
May 2 vs. Olympiacos: 2-4, L (Europa Conference League)
April 27 vs. Chelsea: 2-2, D
April 18 at Lille: 1-2, L (Europa Conference League)
April 14 at Arsenal: 2-0, W
April 11 vs. Lille: 2-1, W (Europa Conference League)
Brighton Form
April 28 at Bournemouth: 0-3, L
April 25 vs. Man City: 0-4, L
April 13 at Burnley: 1-1, D
April 6 vs. Arsenal: 0-3, L
April 3 at Brentford: 0-0, D
Upcoming EPL Match Schedule
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Tottenham | Manchester United | Nov. 8 | 7:30 a.m. | Tottenham Hotspur Stadium |
| Everton | Fulham | Nov. 8 | 10 a.m. | Hill Dickinson Stadium |
| West Ham United | Burnley | Nov. 8 | 10 a.m. | London Stadium |
| Sunderland | Arsenal | Nov. 8 | 12:30 p.m. | Stadium of Light |
| Chelsea | Wolves | Nov. 8 | 3 p.m. | Stamford Bridge |
| Aston Villa | Bournemouth | Nov. 9 | 9 a.m. | Villa Park |
| Brentford | Newcastle United | Nov. 9 | 9 a.m. | GTech Community Stadium |
| Crystal Palace | Brighton & Hove Albion | Nov. 9 | 9 a.m. | Selhurst Park |
| Nottingham Forest | Leeds United | Nov. 9 | 9 a.m. | The City Ground |
| Manchester City | Liverpool | Nov. 9 | 11:30 a.m. | Etihad Stadium |
EPL Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Arsenal | 8-1-1 | 25 | 15 |
| Manchester City | 6-1-3 | 19 | 12 |
| Bournemouth | 5-3-2 | 18 | 3 |
| Liverpool | 6-0-4 | 18 | 4 |
| Sunderland | 5-3-2 | 18 | 4 |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 5-2-3 | 17 | 9 |
| Chelsea | 5-2-3 | 17 | 7 |
| Manchester United | 5-2-3 | 17 | 1 |
| Crystal Palace | 4-4-2 | 16 | 5 |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 4-3-3 | 15 | 2 |
| Aston Villa | 4-3-3 | 15 | -1 |
| Brentford | 4-1-5 | 13 | -1 |
| Newcastle United | 3-3-4 | 12 | -1 |
| Everton | 3-3-4 | 12 | -3 |
| Fulham | 3-2-5 | 11 | -2 |
| Leeds United | 3-2-5 | 11 | -8 |
| Burnley | 3-1-6 | 10 | -7 |
| West Ham United | 2-1-7 | 7 | -11 |
| Nottingham Forest | 1-3-6 | 6 | -12 |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 0-2-8 | 2 | -15 |
EPL ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS% | Home ATS Record | Home ATS% | Road ATS Record | Road ATS% |
| Arsenal | 4-3-3 | 55.0% | 2-2-1 | 50.0% | 2-1-2 | 60.0% |
| Aston Villa | 3-5-2 | 40.0% | 2-2-1 | 50.0% | 1-3-1 | 30.0% |
| Bournemouth | 6-2-2 | 70.0% | 4-0-1 | 90.0% | 2-2-1 | 50.0% |
| Brentford | 5-4-1 | 55.0% | 4-0-1 | 90.0% | 1-4-0 | 20.0% |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 4-6-0 | 40.0% | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 1-4-0 | 20.0% |
| Burnley | 6-2-2 | 70.0% | 4-0-1 | 90.0% | 2-2-1 | 50.0% |
| Chelsea | 5-5-0 | 50.0% | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 3-2-0 | 60.0% |
| Crystal Palace | 6-4-0 | 60.0% | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 4-1-0 | 80.0% |
| Everton | 3-4-3 | 45.0% | 2-2-1 | 50.0% | 1-2-2 | 40.0% |
| Fulham | 5-3-2 | 60.0% | 4-0-1 | 90.0% | 1-3-1 | 30.0% |
| Leeds United | 4-5-1 | 45.0% | 3-1-1 | 70.0% | 1-4-0 | 20.0% |
| Liverpool | 4-5-1 | 45.0% | 3-1-1 | 80.0% | 1-4-0 | 20.0% |
| Manchester City | 6-3-1 | 65.0% | 4-1-0 | 80.0% | 2-2-1 | 50.0% |
| Manchester United | 4-6-0 | 40.0% | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 1-4-0 | 20.0% |
| Newcastle United | 2-6-2 | 30.0% | 1-3-1 | 30.0% | 1-3-1 | 30.0% |
| Nottingham Forest | 3-7-0 | 30.0% | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 1-4-0 | 20.0% |
| Sunderland | 7-2-1 | 75.0% | 4-0-1 | 90.0% | 3-1-1 | 70.0% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 6-4-0 | 60.0% | 1-4-0 | 20.0% | 5-0-0 | 100.0% |
| West Ham United | 3-6-1 | 35.0% | 1-4-0 | 20.0% | 2-2-1 | 50.0% |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 3-7-0 | 30.0% | 1-4-0 | 20.0% | 2-3-0 | 40.0% |
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