Brentford vs Leeds Prediction, Odds & Match Preview

Brentford tries to bounce back from a bad loss against Tottenham as short favorites vs Leeds. 

The Bees fell 2-0 at Tottenham on Matchday 15, the seventh road loss in eight road matches this year. That result moves Brentford down a spot to 14th in the league table. 

Leeds, despite never leading at home, captured a 3-3 result against Liverpool on Saturday. It marked the second straight home result for Leeds after a 3-1 win over Chelsea. 

Check out the Premier League odds and my Brentford vs Leeds prediction. 

Brentford vs Leeds: Premier League Odds

Leeds vs Brentford: Prediction

Based on Brentford’s attacking success at home and Leeds’ weak road defensive record, my Brentford vs Leeds prediction is Brentford Over 1.5 Goals (-110). 

Manager Keith Andrews has Brentford’s attack performing markedly better at home. 

Through seven home matches, the Bees created 13.2 expected goals. They’ve also cleared this benchmark in three straight and five of their last six at the GTech Community Stadium. 

Only once this season has an opponent kept Brentford scoreless at home. That came against Manchester City, which outpaces Leeds by 15 spots in expected goals per 90 minutes. 

Leeds, meanwhile, owns one of the worst road defenses in the Premier League. Only Burnley has surrendered a higher xG tally away from home than Daniel Farke’s defense. 

Some of that record can be attributed to the competition. But this is also a defense that surrendered three goals to Nottingham Forest and Brighton. 

Excluding Matchday 15, Brighton offers the closest comparison to Brentford’s attack. Brighton, before the weekend, sat on 1.55 xG per 90, 0.01 ahead of Brentford. 

In that trip, Leeds allowed three tallies to Brighton off three expected goals and 4.5 post-shot xG, per fbref.com. 

Forest, a markedly worse attack than Brentford, created 3.4 post-shot xG against Leeds at home. 

Given those factors, I predict Brentford will clear this benchmark for the fourth straight home match.