Brentford vs Brighton Prediction & Odds

Off a strong result as road underdogs to Arsenal, Brentford return home for a meeting against Brighton. 

Thomas Frank’s side captured a 1-1 draw at Arsenal, their seventh road result in their last eight trips. However, not since December 7 has Brentford earned all three points at home. 

Brighton suffered a 2-2 home draw as big favorites against Leicester City last weekend. It marked the 12th draw of the season for Brighton, which last won on March 8. 

Check out the Premier League odds and my Brentford vs Brighton prediction. 

Brentford vs Brighton: Premier League Odds

• Brentford Moneyline: +145
• Brighton Moneyline: +170
• Draw Moneyline: +260
• Match Over/Under: 2.5 Goals (-175/+125)
• Both Teams to Score: “Yes” (-200), “No” (+140)

Brighton vs Brentford: Prediction

Based on Brighton’s metrics away from home and their success against bad defenses, my Brentford vs Brighton prediction is the Total Over 2.5 Goals (-175). 

While it’s a lot of juice to lay, 12 of Brighton’s 16 road matches have cleared 2.5 goals, including six of their previous seven. 

From a metrics standpoint, Brighton’s road matches generally prove as eventful as expected. 

Per fbref.com, Brighton’s 16 road fixtures averaged 2.99 combined expected goals per 90 minutes. 

Based on post-shot expected goals, Brighton’s travels have seen 56 goals off 51.7 post-shot xG combined. 

Most of those performances are driven by Brighton’s attack, which ranks eighth in post-shot xG for the entire season. 

But bettors have also seen the Seagulls struggle against the league’s best attacks. 

In four visits to teams first-fourth in post-shot xG – Brentford rank fifth – Brighton allowed three to score at least twice, with all four matches clearing 2.5 goals. 

Plus, Brentford home matches have proven even more eventful than Brighton road fixtures. At the GTech, Brentford matches average 3.24 xG per 90 minutes. 

While none of Brentford’s previous five home matches cleared this benchmark, their defense remains a big concern. To date, the Bees rank 12th in post-shot xGA, per fbref.com. 

History also likes this match to clear 2.5 goals. 

Since 2012, matches with a total of 2.5 are 102-56 to the over, assuming two factors:

• The road team’s average number of goals falls between 1.5 and 1.9
• The road team’s average number of goals allowed falls between 1.4 and 1.8

When Brighton is the road team within that scenario, games are 8-2 to over 2.5 goals, with four of the last five hitting the over. 

In those five games, Brighton cleared 1.5 goals on their own four times. The only failure? At Crystal Palace, which sits fourth in post-shot xG allowed.

Premier League Match Schedule

Premier League ATS Records

Premier League Standings