- Bournemouth is predicted to be a -0.5-goal favorite against Southampton.
- Since last season, Bournemouth is 11-6 SU as a favorite.
- I predict Bournemouth will earn all three points on Monday.
On the heels of two consecutive league losses, Bournemouth hosts a standalone match on Monday against lowly Southampton.Â
The Cherries fell 3-0 at Liverpool on Matchday 4 after losing 1-0 at home to Chelsea the previous week.Â
Southampton’s results haven’t been favorable either. Their Matchday 4 draw against Ipswich marked their first league point following three straight losses.Â
Here’s a look at the Premier League odds and my Bournemouth vs. Southampton prediction.Â
Bournemouth vs. Southampton Odds, Premier League
- Bournemouth Moneyline: -165
- Southampton Moneyline: +400
- Draw Moneyline: +320
- Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (+125/-175)
- Both Teams to Score: Yes (-175), No (+120)
Bournemouth vs. Southampton Prediction: Moneyline
My prediction for Bournemouth vs. Southampton is the Bournemouth Moneyline (-165).Â
This is a brilliant buy-low spot on Bournemouth, which has run unlucky at home and now gets the worst team in the league.Â
In home matches against Newcastle United and Chelsea, Bournemouth has a -1 goal differential. However, it comes against a +1.6 expected goal differential.Â
On Monday, they get a Southampton defense that provides zero resistance.Â
In their last three league matches against Ipswich Town, Manchester United and Brentford, Southampton has allowed 10.25 post-shot expected goals.Â
Even if you just look at their matches against Ipswich Town and Brentford, Southampton still allowed 6.2 post-shot expected goals.Â
Right now, the assumption has to be that Southampton will allow north of three post-shot xG until proven otherwise.Â
While Bournemouth are 19th in post-shot xG allowed, they’ve faced a brutal schedule so far. Yet, they’re still sixth in the corresponding offensive category.Â
Bournemouth also matches two historically profitable systems.Â
Since 2012, home favorites between -235 and -110 that closed an underdog in their previous game are 65% SU against a team that closed a favorite in their last game.Â
Additionally, home favorites between -230 and +105 off a loss by three or more goals are 68% SU, including 34-12 when the opponent closed a favorite in their last game.Â
Take the Cherries to earn all three points on Monday.Â
Bournemouth Record, Last 5 Matches
- Sept. 21 at Liverpool: 0-3, L
- Sept. 14 vs. Chelsea: 0-1, L
- Aug. 31 at Everton: 3-2, W
- Aug. 28 at West Ham: 0-1, L (EFL Cup)
- Aug. 25 vs. Newcastle United: 1-1, D
Southampton Record, Last 5 Matches
- Sept. 21 vs. Ipswich Town: 1-1, D
- Sept. 17 at Everton: 1-1, D (EFL Cup, Everton Advance)
- Sept. 14 vs. Manchester United: 0-3, L
- Aug. 31 at Brentford: 1-3, L
- Aug. 28 at Cardiff: 5-3, W (EFL Cup)
Visit the BetMGM online sportsbook for the latest Bournemouth odds and Southampton odds!
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