- Bournemouth is predicted to be a 0.5-goal home favorite against Everton.
- 'First Half Over 1.5 Goals' has hit in each of Bournemouth's last six EPL matches.
- My Bournemouth vs Everton prediction is the Bournemouth Moneyline (+110).
Bournemouth tries to end a poor run of form as short home favorites against Everton.Â
Andoni Iraola’s side lost 3-2 at Sunderland over the weekend. The match proved a bit fluky as Bournemouth denied itself a third goal while dominating the underlying metrics.Â
Everton fell 4-1 at home to Newcastle United on Saturday. That loss ended a three-match unbeaten streak for the Toffees, currently 14th in the Premier League table.Â
Check out the Premier League odds and my Bournemouth vs Everton prediction.Â
Bournemouth vs Everton: Premier League Odds
Everton vs Bournemouth: Prediction
Based on Bournemouth’s potential positive regression and its dominance of Everton last season, my Bournemouth vs Everton prediction is the Bournemouth Moneyline (+110).Â
The Cherries have dropped points in four straight, posting a -7 goal differential over that span. However, the results have proved very misleading.Â
Bournemouth recorded a +1 expected goal differential across all four matches. By post-shot expected goal differential, Bournemouth recorded a +2.7 edge over those four matches. Â
In the lone home match, Iraola’s squad drew 2-2 against West Ham despite a 3.9-0.6 expected goal differential.Â
Now the team gets an Everton side that struggled massively against Bournemouth last year.Â
Bournemouth earned two wins against Everton, which currently ranks amongst the worst EPL defenses.Â
In the last meeting, Bournemouth won 1-0 at home. However, expected goals finished 1.84-0.71 with post-shot xG finishing 3.02-0, per fotmob.com.Â
Earlier last season, Bournemouth won 3-2 at Everton. Expected goals gave a +0.38 edge to Bournemouth, with post-shot xG giving a +0.96 edge.Â
These teams also met in the FA Cup last February. Bournemouth won 2-0 with a +1.95 post-shot xGDiff edge.Â
Additionally, history suggests this spot offers a good chance for Bournemouth to earn all three points.Â
Since 2012, favorites between -175 and +127 that closed as a favorite in its previous game are 57-13, assuming two factors:
- The underdog’s previous game margin is -3 or -4
- The favorite’s margin in the last head-to-head meeting falls between -5 and +1
When those teams sit between -103 and +127: 24-6. As a result, I predict Bournemouth will take all three points and end its poor run of form.Â
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