Bournemouth vs Chelsea Prediction, Odds & Match Preview

After a home loss to Everton, Bournemouth returns on short rest to face Chelsea. 

Andoni Iraola’s team suffered a 1-0 defeat to Everton, ending a six-match unbeaten streak at home. The result dropped the Cherries to 14th in the league table. 

Chelsea won 1-0 when these teams last met at the Vitality Stadium. Not since December 2019 has Bournemouth taken all three points in a match against Chelsea. 

Check out the Premier League odds and my Bournemouth vs Chelsea prediction. 

Bournemouth vs Chelsea: Premier League Odds

Chelsea vs Bournemouth: Prediction

Based on Bournemouth’s defensive record and Chelsea’s potential offensive improvement, my Bournemouth vs Chelsea prediction is Chelsea Over 1.5 Goals (-115). 

In attack, Chelsea has recorded strong metrics this season. Excluding a midweek match at Leeds United, the Blues rank second in both expected goals and non-penalty xG. 

By post-shot expected goals – this only counts shots that hit the target – Chelsea leads the Premier League at 27.8. 

In my Leeds vs Chelsea breakdown, I covered that Chelsea could see some positive attacking regression. Entering that match, goalkeepers denied Chelsea four goals over expectation. 

That qualifies as the Premier League’s largest underperformance. 

When Chelsea last faced Bournemouth, the attack created 2.5 xG and 3.15 post-shot xG. 

Chelsea managed only one goal in its last visit to Bournemouth, but it came with both teams playing on extra rest.  

Now, they’re getting a Bournemouth defense that has struggled to keep out good attacks. 

Since the calendar flipped to November, Bournemouth has kept only one of five opponents under this figure. 

While the defense has generally played better at home, this marks the first time all year that Bournemouth will close as a home underdog. 

Recently, subpar defenses have surrendered goals at will when placed into that role. 

Since 2023, home dogs allowing over 1.7 goals per game have allowed two or more tallies in 22 of 26 matches against road teams averaging between 1.6 and 1.9 goals per game.