- Bournemouth is predicted to be a 1.5-goal home favorite against Burnley.
- By expected goals against, Burnley is the worst defense in the Premier League.
- My Bournemouth vs Burnley prediction is Bournemouth Over 2.5 Goals (+160).
Burnley will try to end a seven-match EPL losing streak on Saturday against Bournemouth.
As a home underdog at Turf Moor, Burnley fell 3-2 to Fulham over the weekend. This season, Burnley has kept only two Premier League clean sheets.
Bournemouth enters this match riding a seven-match winless run (D3-L4). On Monday, the team played a 4-4 thriller against Manchester United, its second straight draw.
Check out the Premier League odds and my Bournemouth vs Burnley prediction.
Bournemouth vs Burnley: Premier League Odds
Burnley vs Bournemouth: Prediction
Based on Burnley’s weak road defensive record and Bournemouth’s strong attacking metrics vs. bad defenses, my Bournemouth vs Burnley prediction is Bournemouth Over 2.5 Goals (+160).
The price alone makes this an intriguing bet. Burnley, away from home, has allowed at least two goals in every match this season.
Five of those eight opponents cleared 2.5 goals against the Clarets. Across all eight fixtures, Burnley surrendered 18.9 expected goals, the worst road output in the league.
By post-shot xG, it gets worse for Burnley. At 19.4 post-shot xG allowed, opponents are averaging 2.43 post-shot xG per 90 minutes.
That includes three post-shot xGA at West Ham, 2.3 at Wolves and 2.6 at Tottenham. All of those attacks rank behind Bournemouth’s attack in post-shot xGF.
Bournemouth recently played West Ham, the league’s second-worst defense, at home. Andoni Iraola’s side created 4.05 xG, four big chances and 4.5 post-shot xG.
On Monday, Bournemouth faced a bad Manchester United defense. The Red Devils rank 17th in post-shot expected goals allowed.
Bournemouth scored four goals off 1.95 xG, six big scoring chances and 3.4 post-shot xG.
Now the team gets a crack at the league’s worst defense.
Given their metrics against slightly “superior” opposition, I predict Bournemouth clears this number for the second straight game.
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