Bournemouth vs. Brentford: Prediction & Odds

With a chance to bolster their European competition positioning, Bournemouth returns home for a meeting with Brentford. 

The Cherries earned a 2-0 advantage over Tottenham on Sunday. However, two late Tottenham goals erased the deficit and resigned Bournemouth to a point. 

Brentford fell 1-0 as home favorites to Aston Villa on Saturday. That extended their home winless run to seven matches. In good news, they’ve won two straight on the road. 

Check out the Premier League odds and my Bournemouth vs. Brentford prediction. 

Bournemouth vs. Brentford: Premier League Odds

• Bournemouth Moneyline: -135
• Brentford Moneyline: +310
• Draw Moneyline: +310
• Game Spread: Bournemouth -0.5 (-145), Brentford +0.5 (+105)
• Game Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (+110/-155)

Bournemouth vs. Brentford Prediction

Based on Bournemouth’s attacking strength, I have two Bournemouth vs. Brentford predictions: Bournemouth Moneyline (-130) & Over 3.5 Goals (+115). 

Saturday couldn’t have produced a better spot for Brentford. They played an Aston Villa side with a weak defense on short rest. 

When describing the performance from Brentford – eighth in expected goals, fifth in post-shot xG – lifeless would be a complement.

Now they’re playing a Bournemouth side that’s third in both aforementioned offensive categories. 

Plus, the Cherries are coming off an undeserved draw. Despite drawing 2-2 with Tottenham, Bournemouth won the match 2.2-1.5 on xG and 2.54-1.1 on post-shot xG. 

Although Bournemouth have dropped two straight at home, one came because of an early red card. The other loss? As home underdogs to Liverpool. 

Prior to those losses, Bournemouth won three of their last five at the Vitality. Additionally, they rank sixth in expected goal differential per 90 minutes at home.

History also likes this spot to back Bournemouth. Since 2012, home favorites between -142 and -130 are 57-11, assuming two factors:

• The team’s previous game margin falls between -1 and +1
• The team’s game number falls between 12 and 37

Given Bournemouth won the last meeting at Brentford on expected goals, I like them to earn all three points. 

As for the over/under, there’s a big mismatch between the Bournemouth attack and Brentford defense. 

The Cherries, as referenced earlier, rank third in both key attacking categories. In the reverse fixture, Bournemouth created 2.6 xG and 1.7 post-shot xG, per fotmob.com. 

Only six sides outrank Brentford in expected goals allowed. Meanwhile, Thomas Frank’s defense ranks 12th in post-shot expected goals allowed. 

It’s simultaneously a strong matchup for the Brentford attack against a Bournemouth defense 13th in post-shot xGA, per fbref.com. 

Given the previous meeting combined to feature five goals off 4.09 xG and 3.52 post-shot xG, I like taking the plus money on another high-scoring match. 

Premier League Match Schedule

Premier League ATS Records

Premier League Standings