- Aston Villa is a -0.5-goal favorite against Manchester United.
- Villa earned a 5-0 road win against Sheffield United last Sunday.
- Aston Villa matches two historically profitable betting systems.
Ahead of Sunday’s kickoff from Villa Park, I’m set to provide a Premier League prediction for Aston Villa vs. Manchester United.Â
Both teams enter this game in solid form. Villa avenged their 3-1 home defeat to Newcastle United – their first home loss all season – by beating Sheffield United 5-0.Â
As for Manchester United, they’ve won two straight league fixtures and have earned at least a point in three straight.Â
Here’s a look at the EPL odds for Sunday’s match and my best bet.Â
EPL Betting Odds – Aston Villa vs. Manchester United
- Aston Villa Moneyline: +115
- Manchester United Moneyline: +210
- Draw Moneyline: +275
- Over/Under: 2.5 Goals (-190/+135)
EPL Prediction – Aston Villa vs. Manchester United
Aston Villa Moneyline (+115)
This rates out a fantastic sell-high spot on Manchester United, who have historically struggled on the road against competent teams.Â
Since the 2017-18 season, Manchester United is only 40.4% ATS as a road dog against a team with a winning percentage north of 45%.Â
Shrink the sample down to the last three seasons, and bettors will find the Red Devils are only 3-11 ATS in those spots, including 0-8 ATS when they’re +0.5 or shorter.Â
On the flip side, Villa is 16-6 ATS as a home favorite since Unai Emery took over as manager.Â
It’s also wise historically to buy home favorites against teams on a winning streak, particularly when they failed to win the last head-to-head meeting.Â
Since 2017-18, home favorites that drew or lost the previous head-to-head meeting against a side that has won at least two straight are 61.5% ATS.Â
Plus, this Villa side has produced strong underlying metrics this season as a home favorite.Â
In nine qualifying matches, they’ve posted a +9.69 non-penalty post shot expected goal differential and have covered -0.5 in seven of those nine matches.Â
Add in there wasn’t a lot separating these teams in the reverse fixture at Old Trafford – Villa only lost the expected goals on target battle 1.66 to 1.95 – and I expect they’ll dominate.Â
Back hosts Villa on the three-way moneyline at -110 or better.Â
Aston Villa FormÂ
Feb. 3 at Sheffield United: 5-0, W
Jan. 30 vs. Newcastle United: 1-3, L
Jan. 14 at Everton: 0-0, D
Dec. 30 vs. Burnley: 3-2, W
Dec. 26 at Manchester United: 2-3, L
Manchester United Form
Feb. 4 vs. West Ham United: 3-0, W
Feb. 1 at Wolves: 4-3, W
Jan. 14 vs. Tottenham: 2-2, D
Dec. 30 at Nottingham Forest: 1-2, L
Dec. 26 vs. Aston Villa: 3-2, W
EPL Match Schedule This Weekend
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Tottenham | Manchester United | Nov. 8 | 7:30 a.m. | Tottenham Hotspur Stadium |
| Everton | Fulham | Nov. 8 | 10 a.m. | Hill Dickinson Stadium |
| West Ham United | Burnley | Nov. 8 | 10 a.m. | London Stadium |
| Sunderland | Arsenal | Nov. 8 | 12:30 p.m. | Stadium of Light |
| Chelsea | Wolves | Nov. 8 | 3 p.m. | Stamford Bridge |
| Aston Villa | Bournemouth | Nov. 9 | 9 a.m. | Villa Park |
| Brentford | Newcastle United | Nov. 9 | 9 a.m. | GTech Community Stadium |
| Crystal Palace | Brighton & Hove Albion | Nov. 9 | 9 a.m. | Selhurst Park |
| Nottingham Forest | Leeds United | Nov. 9 | 9 a.m. | The City Ground |
| Manchester City | Liverpool | Nov. 9 | 11:30 a.m. | Etihad Stadium |
EPL Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Arsenal | 8-1-1 | 25 | 15 |
| Manchester City | 6-1-3 | 19 | 12 |
| Bournemouth | 5-3-2 | 18 | 3 |
| Liverpool | 6-0-4 | 18 | 4 |
| Sunderland | 5-3-2 | 18 | 4 |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 5-2-3 | 17 | 9 |
| Chelsea | 5-2-3 | 17 | 7 |
| Manchester United | 5-2-3 | 17 | 1 |
| Crystal Palace | 4-4-2 | 16 | 5 |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 4-3-3 | 15 | 2 |
| Aston Villa | 4-3-3 | 15 | -1 |
| Brentford | 4-1-5 | 13 | -1 |
| Newcastle United | 3-3-4 | 12 | -1 |
| Everton | 3-3-4 | 12 | -3 |
| Fulham | 3-2-5 | 11 | -2 |
| Leeds United | 3-2-5 | 11 | -8 |
| Burnley | 3-1-6 | 10 | -7 |
| West Ham United | 2-1-7 | 7 | -11 |
| Nottingham Forest | 1-3-6 | 6 | -12 |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 0-2-8 | 2 | -15 |
EPL ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS% | Home ATS Record | Home ATS% | Road ATS Record | Road ATS% |
| Arsenal | 4-3-3 | 55.0% | 2-2-1 | 50.0% | 2-1-2 | 60.0% |
| Aston Villa | 3-5-2 | 40.0% | 2-2-1 | 50.0% | 1-3-1 | 30.0% |
| Bournemouth | 6-2-2 | 70.0% | 4-0-1 | 90.0% | 2-2-1 | 50.0% |
| Brentford | 5-4-1 | 55.0% | 4-0-1 | 90.0% | 1-4-0 | 20.0% |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 4-6-0 | 40.0% | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 1-4-0 | 20.0% |
| Burnley | 6-2-2 | 70.0% | 4-0-1 | 90.0% | 2-2-1 | 50.0% |
| Chelsea | 5-5-0 | 50.0% | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 3-2-0 | 60.0% |
| Crystal Palace | 6-4-0 | 60.0% | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 4-1-0 | 80.0% |
| Everton | 3-4-3 | 45.0% | 2-2-1 | 50.0% | 1-2-2 | 40.0% |
| Fulham | 5-3-2 | 60.0% | 4-0-1 | 90.0% | 1-3-1 | 30.0% |
| Leeds United | 4-5-1 | 45.0% | 3-1-1 | 70.0% | 1-4-0 | 20.0% |
| Liverpool | 4-5-1 | 45.0% | 3-1-1 | 80.0% | 1-4-0 | 20.0% |
| Manchester City | 6-3-1 | 65.0% | 4-1-0 | 80.0% | 2-2-1 | 50.0% |
| Manchester United | 4-6-0 | 40.0% | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 1-4-0 | 20.0% |
| Newcastle United | 2-6-2 | 30.0% | 1-3-1 | 30.0% | 1-3-1 | 30.0% |
| Nottingham Forest | 3-7-0 | 30.0% | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 1-4-0 | 20.0% |
| Sunderland | 7-2-1 | 75.0% | 4-0-1 | 90.0% | 3-1-1 | 70.0% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 6-4-0 | 60.0% | 1-4-0 | 20.0% | 5-0-0 | 100.0% |
| West Ham United | 3-6-1 | 35.0% | 1-4-0 | 20.0% | 2-2-1 | 50.0% |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 3-7-0 | 30.0% | 1-4-0 | 20.0% | 2-3-0 | 40.0% |
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