Liverpool vs. Aston Villa Prediction, Odds, Pick | EPL

For Monday Night Football (Premier League version), Liverpool travels to Birmingham to face Aston Villa. 

Liverpool’s title hopes could be dashed by kickoff if City and Arsenal both win. Still, they enter Monday’s game fresh off a 4-2 win over Tottenham. 

As for Aston Villa, they’re in a bit of crisis mode as they attempt to hang onto the final Champions League spot. 

Entering Monday’s game, Villa are winless in their last four in all competitions. 

Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my prediction for Monday’s fixture. 

EPL Betting Odds – Liverpool vs. Aston Villa

• Liverpool Moneyline: -140
• Aston Villa Moneyline: +300
• Draw Moneyline: +350
• Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (-135/-105)

Premier League Prediction – Liverpool vs. Aston Villa

Total Over 3.5 Goals (-135) 

Right now, the Aston Villa defense can’t stop anyone, even at home. In their last eight Premier League fixtures at Villa Park, they’ve surrendered 1.87 expected goals per 90 minutes. 

They’ve particularly struggled at home against competent attacks. This calendar year, Villa have played four attacks averaging at least 1.5 non-penalty xG. 

Sample only the minutes played at 11v11 and bettors will find Villa allowed 1.7 post-shot expected goals. 

In those four contests, they’ve allowed all four teams to score at least two goals with three reaching three or more goals. 

Plus, Villa struggled immensely the last time they played Liverpool. Albeit away from home, they conceded 2.5 expected goals. 

This season, Liverpool sits second in road expected goals and has bossed bad defenses away from Anfield. 

In nine road matches against sides allowing more than 1.45 npxGA per 90 minutes, Liverpool has created 1.85 npxGA per 90 minutes. 

All that said, don’t count out this Villa attack. They’ve scored at least once in all home matches bar one and get a Liverpool defense that’s markedly worse away from home. 

The Reds have kept only four clean sheets away from home, but three of those opponents generated at least one expected goal. 

Entering Monday’s match, Liverpool have allowed 1.39 xGA per 90 on the road compared to 0.95 at Anfield. 

In their last five road matches, they’ve surrendered 1.5 psxG without facing a single side inside the top-eight in that category. 

This game also matches a historically profitable system. Since 2012-13, overs in games featuring a home underdog are 48-25-1, assuming three factors:

• The away team’s average number of goals is between 1.4 and 4
• The closing total is 2.5, 3 or 3.5
• The home team’s previous over/under margin is between -2 and -3.5

Liverpool Form 

May 5 vs. Tottenham: 4-2, W

April 27 at West Ham: 2-2, D

April 24 at Everton: 0-2, L

April 21 at Fulham: 3-1, W

April 18 at Atalanta: 1-0, W (Europa League) 

Aston Villa Form

May 9 at Olympiacos: 0-2, L (Europa Conference League)

May 5 at Brighton: 0-1, L

May 2 vs. Olympiacos: 2-4, L (Europa Conference League)

April 27 vs. Chelsea: 2-2, D

April 21 vs. Bournemouth: 3-1, W

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