Arsenal vs Tottenham Prediction, Odds & Match Preview

The first edition of this season’s North London Derby sees Arsenal host Tottenham. 

Before the break, Arsenal drew 2-2 as big road favorites against Sunderland. It marked the end of an impressive defensive run with Arsenal conceding for the first time since September. 

Tottenham, meanwhile, drew 2-2 against Manchester United. Now, Thomas Frank’s side aims to keep its perfect road record intact against the current league leaders. 

Check out the Premier League odds and my Arsenal vs Tottenham prediction. 

Arsenal vs Tottenham: Premier League Odds

Tottenham vs Arsenal: Prediction

Based on Tottenham’s overwhelming offensive fortune this season and Arsenal’s stout defensive record, my Arsenal vs Tottenham prediction is Tottenham Under 0.5 Goals (-110). 

Frank’s attack has run so lucky this season. Entering Matchday 12, Spurs have scored 19 goals against 11 expected goals. Even by post-shot xG, it’s 18 non-own goals against 16.8 psxG. 

A massive chunk of that overperformance came away from home. Tottenham’s 12 road goals are tied for the league lead, but their 5.8 xG away from home is ranked 10th. 

Now, they’re taking on an Arsenal defense that leads the league in every important metric. 

Mikel Arteta’s defense has surrendered six expected goals in 11 matches. The gap between Arsenal and second-placed Man City is as big as the gap between City and 12th-placed Leeds. 

The measures are even better by post-shot xG. Arsenal has surrendered only 4.5 post-shot xG this season. Second-place Aston Villa comes in at 9.6. 

That gap between Arsenal and Villa is almost as big as the gap between Villa and 13th-placed Brighton! 

Although Arsenal surrendered a pair of goals to Sunderland, metrics rate those tallies as lucky. 

Sunderland scored twice off 0.4 xG and 0.8 post-shot xG. That helps create a potential buy-low spot on the Arsenal defense at home. 

Only Manchester City has found a tally at the Emirates this season. Pep Guardiola’s side ranks second in both expected goals and non-penalty xG this season, per fbref.com. 

Tottenham, without a number of key attacking pieces, pose a small threat to Arsenal. 

Last season – albeit under different management – Tottenham posted 0.75 xG per 90 against Arsenal. 

That sample includes a match out of the international break. At home, Tottenham managed only 0.7 xG against Arsenal while failing to score. 

Based on those factors, I predict Tottenham’s attack struggles as big road dogs against their rivals.